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Lecture

Disaster Risk Reduction: Modeling Perspectives

Description

This lecture discusses the differences between deterministic and probabilistic modeling in the context of disaster risk reduction, using tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean as a case study. It also includes an interview with Professor David Bresch from ETH Zurich on the topic.

In MOOC

A Resilient Future: Science and Technology for Disaster Risk Reduction

Official source

Related concepts (14)

Tropical cyclone

A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system characterized by a low-pressure center, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain and squalls. Depending on its location and strength, a tropical cyclone is referred to by different names, including hurricane (ˈhʌrᵻkən,_-keɪn), typhoon (taɪ'fuːn), tropical storm, cyclonic storm, tropical depression, or simply cyclone.

Tropical cyclone basins

Traditionally, areas of tropical cyclone formation are divided into seven basins. These include the north Atlantic Ocean, the eastern and western parts of the northern Pacific Ocean, the southwestern Pacific, the southwestern and southeastern Indian Oceans, and the northern Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal). The western Pacific is the most active and the north Indian the least active.

Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone

Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones, often referred to as medicanes (a portmanteau of Mediterranean hurricanes) but sometimes also as Mediterranean cyclones or as Mediterranean hurricanes, are meteorological phenomena occasionally observed over the Mediterranean Sea. On a few rare occasions, some storms have been observed reaching the strength of a , on the Saffir–Simpson scale, and one storm has been recorded reaching intensity. The main societal hazard posed by medicanes is not usually from destructive winds, but through life-threatening torrential rains and flash floods.

Tropical cyclone warnings and watches

Tropical cyclone warnings and watches are alerts issued by national weather forecasting bodies to coastal areas threatened by the imminent approach of a tropical cyclone of tropical storm or hurricane intensity. They are notices to the local population and civil authorities to make appropriate preparation for the cyclone, including evacuation of vulnerable areas where necessary. It is important that interests throughout the area of an alert make preparations to protect life and property, and do not disregard it on the strength of the detailed forecast track.

Tropical cyclones and climate change

Climate change can affect tropical cyclones in a variety of ways: an intensification of rainfall and wind speed, a decrease in overall frequency, an increase in the frequency of very intense storms and a poleward extension of where the cyclones reach maximum intensity are among the possible consequences of human-induced climate change. Tropical cyclones use warm, moist air as their source of energy or "fuel". As climate change is warming ocean temperatures, there is potentially more of this fuel available.

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