Lecture

Tipping Points: Potential Elements and Impacts

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Description

This lecture explores climate scenarios, emissions projections, and multi-model temperature and precipitation changes. It delves into tipping points, defining critical values, timescales, and impacts of various tipping elements like Arctic Sea-Ice Loss, Greenland Ice Sheet, and Atlantic thermohaline circulation. The instructor discusses the consequences of gradual changes, emphasizing the precautionary principle and the uncertainty in cost-benefit estimates of climate change, considering factors like the climate system, social dynamics, and technology.

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Related concepts (32)

Climate change scenario

Climate change scenarios or socioeconomic scenarios are projections of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used by analysts to assess future vulnerability to climate change. Scenarios and pathways are created by scientists to survey any long term routes and explore the effectiveness of mitigation and helps us understand what the future may hold this will allow us to envision the future of human environment system. Producing scenarios requires estimates of future population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change.

Greenland ice sheet

The Greenland ice sheet (Grønlands indlandsis, Sermersuaq) is a vast body of ice covering , roughly near 80% of the surface of Greenland. It is sometimes referred to as an ice cap, or under the term inland ice, or its Danish equivalent, indlandsis. The acronym GIS is frequently used in the scientific literature. It is the second largest ice body in the world, after the Antarctic ice sheet. The ice sheet is almost long in a north–south direction, and its greatest width is at a latitude of 77°N, near its northern margin.

Tipping points in the climate system

In climate science, a tipping point is a critical threshold that, when crossed, leads to large and often irreversible changes in the climate system. If tipping points are crossed, they are likely to have severe impacts on human society. Tipping behavior is found across the climate system, in ecosystems, ice sheets, and the circulation of the ocean and atmosphere. Tipping points are often, but not necessarily, abrupt. For example, with average global warming somewhere between and , the Greenland ice sheet passes a tipping point and is doomed, but its melt would take place over millennia.

Ice-sheet model

In climate modelling, Ice-sheet models use numerical methods to simulate the evolution, dynamics and thermodynamics of ice sheets, such as the Greenland ice sheet, the Antarctic ice sheet or the large ice sheets on the northern hemisphere during the last glacial period. They are used for a variety of purposes, from studies of the glaciation of Earth over glacial–interglacial cycles in the past to projections of ice-sheet decay under future global warming conditions. Beginning in the mid-18th Century, investigation into ice sheet behavior began.

Climate model

Numerical climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the important drivers of climate, including atmosphere, oceans, land surface and ice. They are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the climate system to projections of future climate. Climate models may also be qualitative (i.e. not numerical) models and also narratives, largely descriptive, of possible futures.

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