Lecture

Evolution of Climate Models

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In course

ENV-400: Air pollution and climate change

A survey course describing the origins of air pollution and climate change ...

Description

This lecture covers the evolution of climate models, starting from the general circulation models (GCMs) simulating fluidic motion to the latest IPCC findings on climate sensitivity. It discusses the estimation of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) through various methods, such as the Gregory method, and the constraints on climate sensitivity from observations and paleoclimate records. The lecture also delves into the different Working Groups of the IPCC, the socio-economic scenarios (SSPs), and the expected warming trends under different scenarios. Additionally, it explores the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on global warming and the indicators used to assess climate change, such as Arctic sea ice area and global mean sea level change.

Instructors (2)

Satoshi Takahama

Curriculum Vitae (pdf)

Julia Schmale

Expertise atmospheric science, aerosol-cloud interactions, climate change in polar regions Mission Extreme environments are particularly sensitive to climate change and are transforming at accelerated rates. This can have important global repercussions. EERL aims to create integrated process understanding by investigating interactions between the atmosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, ocean, land and anthroposphere. The goal is to characterize climate-change relevant and vertically-resolved processes that are d

Official source

Ontological neighbourhood

Environmental science

Climate: Climate change, Climate change mitigation

Related concepts (32)

Climate model

Numerical climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the important drivers of climate, including atmosphere, oceans, land surface and ice. They are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the climate system to projections of future climate. Climate models may also be qualitative (i.e. not numerical) models and also narratives, largely descriptive, of possible futures.

Climate change

In common usage, climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate. The current rise in global average temperature is more rapid than previous changes, and is primarily caused by humans burning fossil fuels. Fossil fuel use, deforestation, and some agricultural and industrial practices increase greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide and methane.

Climate sensitivity

Climate sensitivity is a measure of how much Earth's surface will cool or warm after a specified factor causes a change in its climate system, such as how much it will warm for a doubling in the atmospheric carbon dioxide () concentration. In technical terms, climate sensitivity is the average change in global mean surface temperature in response to a radiative forcing, which drives a difference between Earth's incoming and outgoing energy.

Climate change scenario

Climate change scenarios or socioeconomic scenarios are projections of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used by analysts to assess future vulnerability to climate change. Scenarios and pathways are created by scientists to survey any long term routes and explore the effectiveness of mitigation and helps us understand what the future may hold this will allow us to envision the future of human environment system. Producing scenarios requires estimates of future population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change.

Climate change feedback

Climate change feedbacks are effects of global warming that amplify or diminish the effect of forces that initially cause the warming. Positive feedbacks enhance global warming while negative feedbacks weaken it. Feedbacks are important in the understanding of climate change because they play an important part in determining the sensitivity of the climate to warming forces. Climate forcings and feedbacks together determine how much and how fast the climate changes.

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