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Lecture

Evolution of Climate Models

In course

ENV-400: Air pollution and climate change

A survey course describing the origins of air pollution and climate change ...

Description

This lecture covers the evolution of climate models, from the early general circulation models to the latest assessment reports. It discusses the estimation of climate sensitivity, the impact of greenhouse gases, and the role of emergent constraints in climate projections. The instructor explains the concept of equilibrium climate sensitivity and the methods used to derive it, such as the Gregory method. The lecture also delves into the challenges of constraining climate sensitivity from observations and the importance of paleoclimate records. It concludes with an overview of the IPCC reports, including the latest AR6 findings on climate change scenarios and their implications for the future.

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Instructors (2)

Julia Schmale

Satoshi Takahama

Curriculum Vitae (pdf)

Official source

Ontological neighbourhood

Environmental science

Climate: Climate change

Related concepts (32)

Climate change

In common usage, climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate. The current rise in global average temperature is more rapid than previous changes, and is primarily caused by humans burning fossil fuels. Fossil fuel use, deforestation, and some agricultural and industrial practices increase greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide and methane.

Climate model

Numerical climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the important drivers of climate, including atmosphere, oceans, land surface and ice. They are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the climate system to projections of future climate. Climate models may also be qualitative (i.e. not numerical) models and also narratives, largely descriptive, of possible futures.

Climate change scenario

Climate change scenarios or socioeconomic scenarios are projections of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used by analysts to assess future vulnerability to climate change. Scenarios and pathways are created by scientists to survey any long term routes and explore the effectiveness of mitigation and helps us understand what the future may hold this will allow us to envision the future of human environment system. Producing scenarios requires estimates of future population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change.

Climate sensitivity

Climate sensitivity is a measure of how much Earth's surface will cool or warm after a specified factor causes a change in its climate system, such as how much it will warm for a doubling in the atmospheric carbon dioxide () concentration. In technical terms, climate sensitivity is the average change in global mean surface temperature in response to a radiative forcing, which drives a difference between Earth's incoming and outgoing energy.

Greenhouse gas emissions

Greenhouse gas emissions (abbreviated as GHG emissions) from human activities strengthen the greenhouse effect, contributing to climate change. Carbon dioxide (), from burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas, is one of the most important factors in causing climate change. The largest emitters are China followed by the US, although the United States has higher emissions per capita. The main producers fueling the emissions globally are large oil and gas companies.

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