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A rare disease is a disease that affects a small percentage of the population. In some parts of the world, an orphan disease is a rare disease whose rarity means there is a lack of a market large enough to gain support and resources for discovering treatments for it, except by the government granting economically advantageous conditions to creating and selling such treatments. Orphan drugs are ones so created or sold. Most rare diseases are genetic in origin and thus are present throughout the person's entire life, even if symptoms do not immediately appear. Many rare diseases appear early in life, and about 30% of children with rare diseases will die before reaching their fifth birthdays. With only four diagnosed patients in 27 years, ribose-5-phosphate isomerase deficiency is considered the rarest known genetic disease. No single number has been agreed upon for which a disease is considered rare. Global Genes has estimated that currently approximately 10,000 rare diseases exist globally, with 80% of these having identified genetic origins. There is no single, widely accepted definition for rare diseases. Some definitions rely solely on the number of people living with a disease, and other definitions include other factors, such as the existence of adequate treatments or the severity of the disease. In the United States, the Rare Diseases Act of 2002 defines rare disease strictly according to prevalence, specifically "any disease or condition that affects fewer than 200,000 people in the United States", or about 1 in 1,500 people. This definition is essentially the same as that of the Orphan Drug Act of 1983, a federal law that was written to encourage research into rare diseases and possible cures. In Japan, the legal definition of a rare disease is one that affects fewer than 50,000 patients in Japan, or about 1 in 2,500 people. However, the European Commission on Public Health defines rare diseases as "life-threatening or chronically debilitating diseases which are of such low prevalence that special combined efforts are needed to address them".
[2]Paolo Prandoni, [3]LCAV, EPFL
In [1]:
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import scipy.signal as sp
import seaborn as sns
sns.set()
In [2]:
plt.rcParams["figure.figsize"] = (14,4)
The basic reproduction number[4]¶
The propagation mechanism of an epidemic such as the one caused by
SARS-CoV-2 virus can be roughly modeled, at least in its inital phase,
as a process in which each infected individ