Mapping and Evolution of Industrial CO 2 Point Sources in Europe: will biogenic CO 2 become a limiting resource by 2050?

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is expected to become a critical feedstock for non-fossil carbon-based energy carriers in hard-to-electrify sectors, the so-called e-fuels. In particular, biogenic CO2 becomes an essential resource, especially after 2040 as specified in European regulation. However, CO2 emissions are expected to decrease significantly as industrial sectors decarbonise. This work builds a comprehensive database of current European industrial CO2 emitters, disaggregated by sector and emission type. Emissions are then projected to 2050 under different decarbonisation scenarios to produce a prospective database of future CO2 emission point sources in Europe. This provides useful values to inform the planning of carbon capture units for utilisation (CCU) or sequestration (CCS). Accounting for uncertainties in biogenic emissions, the available biogenic CO 2 from the analysed sectors could not meet the projected demand for captured CO2 in 2050. This mismatch may constrain the large-scale deployment of e-fuel pathways in Europe, unless atmospheric carbon capture technologies reach industrial maturity.