Publications associées à On Risk Reduction in Kelly Betting Using the Conservative Expected Value

Using automated design appraisal to model building-specific devaluation risk due to land-use change

Uncertainty of spillover effects – including property devaluation - from proposed land-use change elicits opposition to local development. This hinders cities’ ability to implement land-use policy aimed at housing affordability and environmental sustainabi ...

2024

Can one hear the shape of a target zone?

Max-Olivier Hongler

We develop an exchange rate target zone model with finite exit time and non-Gaussian tails. We show how the tails are a consequence of time-varying investor risk aversion, which generates mean-preserving spreads in the fundamental distribution. We solve ex ...

2023

Safety risk management in University laboratories

Anastasia Jung

Risk management has become an essential element in the functioning of modern society. Correct risk identification and assessment are undoubtedly crucial to improving overall safety; nevertheless, often, it is accompanied by the wrong selection of correctiv ...

EPFL2023

Automated Design Appraisal: Estimating Real Estate Price Growth and Value at Risk Due to Local Development

Adam Robert Swietek

Financial criteria in architectural design evaluation are limited to cost performance. Here, I introduce a method – Automated Design Appraisal (ADA) – to predict the market price of a generated building design concept within a local urban context. Integrat ...

2023

Equilibria in Network Constrained Energy Markets

Leonardo Massai

We study an energy market composed of producers who compete to supply energy to different markets and want to maximize their profits. The energy market is modeled by a graph representing a constrained power network where nodes represent the markets and lin ...

Elsevier2023

Beyond Time-Average Convergence: Near-Optimal Uncoupled Online Learning via Clairvoyant Multiplicative Weights Update

Efstratios Panteleimon Skoulakis

In this paper we provide a novel and simple algorithm, Clairvoyant Multiplicative Weights Updates (CMWU), for convergence to \textit{Coarse Correlated Equilibria} (CCE) in general games. CMWU effectively corresponds to the standard MWU algorithm but where ...

2022

Crash test-based assessment of injury risks for adults and children when colliding with personal mobility devices and service robots

Aude Billard, Diego Felipe Paez Granados

Autonomous mobility devices such as transport, cleaning, and delivery robots, hold a massive economic and social benefit. However, their deployment should not endanger bystanders, particularly vulnerable populations such as children and older adults who ar ...

Nature Publishing Group2022

Technology Strategy in Dynamic Environments: A Computational Analysis of the Automation of Routines, the Organization of AI, and the Evaluation of Technology Risk

Maximilian Wieland Hofer

In this dissertation, I develop theory and evidence to argue that new technologies are central to how firms organize to create and capture value. I use computational methods such as reinforcement learning and probabilistic topic modeling to investigate thr ...

EPFL2022

A Simulation-Based Heuristic to Find Approximate Equilibria with Disaggregate Demand Models

Michel Bierlaire, Virginie Janine Camille Lurkin, Stefano Bortolomiol

Oligopolistic competition occurs in various transportation markets. In this paper, we introduce a framework to find approximate equilibrium solutions of oligopolistic markets in which demand is modeled at the disaggregate level using discrete choice models ...

INFORMS2021

Mixed Nash Equilibria in the Adversarial Examples Game

Rafaël Benjamin Pinot

This paper tackles the problem of adversarial examples from a game theoretic point of view. We study the open question of the existence of mixed Nash equilibria in the zero-sum game formed by the attacker and the classifier. While previous works usually al ...

JMLR-JOURNAL MACHINE LEARNING RESEARCH2021

Essays in Banking and Financial Regulation

Susanne Johanna Petronella Léonie Vissers

This thesis examines how banks choose their optimal capital structure and cash reserves in the presence of regulatory measures. The first chapter, titled Bank Capital Structure and Tail Risk, presents a bank capital structure model in which bank assets ...

EPFL2021

Epidemic mitigation by statistical inference from contact tracing data

Maria Refinetti, Giovanni Catania, Florent Gérard Krzakala, Lenka Zdeborová, Indaco Biazzo

Contact tracing is an essential tool to mitigate the impact of a pandemic, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of attention has been ...

National Academy of Sciences2021

Estimating and predicting snakebite risk in the Terai region of Nepal through a high-resolution geospatial and One Health approach

Stéphane Joost

Most efforts to understand snakebite burden in Nepal have been localized to relatively small areas and focused on humans through epidemiological studies. We present the outcomes of a geospatial analysis of the factors influencing snakebite risk in humans a ...

Nature Portfolio2021

Dynamic control strategies for managing pedestrian flows

Nicholas Alan Molyneaux

Pedestrians, like drivers, generally dislike congestion. This is true for most pedestrian environments: trains stations, airports, or shopping malls. Furthermore, pedestrian congestion also influences the attractiveness of public transportation networks. T ...

EPFL2021

An unethical optimization principle

Anthony Christopher Davison

If an artificial intelligence aims to maximize risk-adjusted return, then under mild conditions it is disproportionately likely to pick an unethical strategy unless the objective function allows sufficiently for this risk. Even if the proportion eta of ava ...

ROYAL SOC2020

Impact of facade details on the reliability of performance-based decisions for early-stage neighborhood designs

Minu Agarwal

Neighborhood-scale projects often commence with the conceptualization of several massing-schemes as potential design solutions. There is growing interest in using building performance simulation (BPS) to evaluate and rank such conceptual stage schemes in o ...

EPFL2020

Regret Minimization and Separation in Multi-Bidder Multi-Item Auctions

Daniel Kuhn, Napat Rujeerapaiboon, Cagil Kocyigit

We study a robust auction design problem with a minimax regret objective, where a seller seeks a mechanism for selling multiple items to multiple anonymous bidders with additive values. The seller knows that the bidders' values range over a box uncertainty ...

2024

Navigating various flexibility mechanisms under European burden-sharing

Marc Vielle

In July 2016, the European Commission presented its proposal for a regulation to reduce greenhouse gases emissions in sectors not covered by the emissions trading system with regard to post-2020 binding targets. The proposal extends the burden-sharing fram ...

SPRINGER2020

Distributional Robustness in Mechanism Design

Cagil Kocyigit

Mechanism design theory examines the design of allocation mechanisms or incentive systems involving multiple rational but self-interested agents and plays a central role in many societally important problems in economics. In mechanism design problems, agen ...

EPFL2020

A demand-based optimization approach to find market equilibria in oligopolies

Stefano Bortolomiol

Oligopolistic competition occurs often in transportation as well as in other markets due to reasons such as barriers to entry, limited capacity of the infrastructure and external regulations. In transport oligopolies, suppliers are profit maximizers and ta ...

2019