Publications associées à Improving Alpine Flood Prediction through Hydrological Process Characterization and Uncertainty Analysis

Good enough: Intermediate complexity atmospheric models improve the representation of processes affecting seasonal snow

Snow plays a crucial role in processes regulating ecosystems, the climate, and human development. Mountain snowpack in particular has great relevance for downstream communities. Knowledge about the distribution and properties of the snowpack thus help in p ...

EPFL2024

A seasonal snowpack model forced with dynamically downscaled forcing data resolves hydrologically relevant accumulation patterns

Michael Lehning, Tobias Jonas, Dylan Stewart Reynolds

The Mountain snowpack stores months of winter precipitation at high elevations, supplying snowmelt to lowland areas in drier seasons for agriculture and human consumption worldwide. Accurate seasonal predictions of the snowpack are thus of great importance ...

Frontiers Media Sa2024

Snowfall deposition in mountainous terrain: a statistical downscaling scheme from high-resolution model data on simulated topographies

Michael Lehning

One of the primary causes of non-uniform snowfall deposition on the ground in mountainous regions is the preferential deposition of snow, which results from the interaction of near-surface winds with topography and snow particles. However, producing high-r ...

Frontiers Media Sa2024

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Flow and Hydrochemistry in Drainage Networks

Izabela Bujak-Ozga

Despite their high ecological value, non-perennial streams have received less attention than their perennial counterparts. This doctoral thesis addresses this disparity by advancing knowledge on the dynamics of the drainage density and hydrologic processes ...

EPFL2024

Turbulence and Heat exchange in the Near-Surface Boundary Layer over Patchy Snow

Michael Haugeneder

The atmospheric layer adjacent to the earth's surface is of crucial importance for weather models due to the exchange of energy between the surface and the atmosphere. This exchange is dependent on the various surface properties and influences the state of ...

EPFL2024

Nowcasting of High-Intensity Rainfall for Urban Applications in the Netherlands

Marc Schleiss, Guo-Shiuan Lin

Radar rainfall nowcasting has mostly been applied to relatively large (often rural) domains (e.g., river basins), although rainfall nowcasting in small urban areas is expected to be more challenging. Here, we selected 80 events with high rainfall intensiti ...

Amer Meteorological Soc2024

Network time series forecasting in photovoltaics power production

Jelena Simeunovic

Accurate forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) power production is crucial for the integration of more renewable energy sources into the power grid. PV power production is highly intermittent, due to the stochastic cloud behaviour and cloud dynamics. Previous w ...

EPFL2024

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021

Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre, Pan Xu, Myungjin Kim, Shan Yu, Lei Gao, Weitong Zhang, Wei Cao, Xinyi Li

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and ...

Public Library Science2024

Intermediate complexity atmospheric modeling in complex terrain: is it right?

Michael Lehning, Dylan Stewart Reynolds, Michael Haugeneder

Dynamic downscaling of atmospheric forcing data to the hectometer resolution has shown increases in accuracy for landsurface models, but at great computational cost. Here we present a validation of a novel intermediate complexity atmospheric model, HICAR, ...

Frontiers Media Sa2024

Toward Reliable Human Pose Forecasting With Uncertainty

Alexandre Massoud Alahi, Saeed Saadatnejad, Taylor Ferdinand Mordan, Parham Saremi

Recently, there has been an arms race of pose forecasting methods aimed at solving the spatio-temporal task of predicting a sequence of future 3D poses of a person given a sequence of past observed ones. However, the lack of unified benchmarks and limited ...

2024

Impact of intercepted and sub-canopy snow microstructure on snowpack response to rain-on-snow events under a boreal canopy

Michael Lehning, Daniel Nadeau, Nander Wever, Adrien Michel, Benjamin Bouchard

Rain-on-snow events can cause severe flooding in snow-dominated regions. These are expected to become more frequent in the future as climate change shifts the precipitation from snowfall to rainfall. However, little is known about how winter rainfall inter ...

2024

Data and scripts for "Unraveling secondary ice production in winter orographic clouds through a synergy of in-situ observations, remote sensing and modeling"

Alexis Berne, Satoshi Takahama, Athanasios Nenes, Georgia Sotiropoulou, Anne-Claire Marie Billault--Roux, Paraskevi Georgakaki, Romanos Foskinis, Kunfeng Gao

This repository contains field observations and processed data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations and the Cloud Resolving Model Radar Simulator (CR-SIM), alongside scripts designed to reproduce the figures presented in the pa ...

Zenodo2024

Turbulence in the Strongly Heterogeneous Near-Surface Boundary Layer over Patchy Snow

Michael Lehning, Dylan Stewart Reynolds, Michael Haugeneder

The near-surface boundary layer above patchy snow cover in mountainous terrain is characterized by a highly complex interplay of various flows on multiple scales. In this study, we present data from a comprehensive field campaign that cover a period of 21 ...

2024

Influence of sun cups on surface albedo of wet Alpine snowpack

Michael Lehning, Mathias Thierry Pierre Bavay, Francesca Carletti

In high elevation Alpine areas, characterised by high snow accumulation and radiation-driven melt processes, the formation of peculiar ablation features called sun cups can be observed. Sun cups likely influence the energy and mass balance of the wet snowp ...

2024

Climate Change Contributions to Increasing Compound Flooding Risk in New York City

Monika Feldmann

Efforts to meaningfully quantify the changes in coastal compound surge- and rainfall -driven flooding hazard associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) in a warming climate have increased in recent years. Despite substantial ...

Amer Meteorological Soc2024

Towards Motion Forecasting with Real-World Perception Inputs: Are End-to-End Approaches Competitive?

Alexandre Massoud Alahi

Motion forecasting is crucial in enabling autonomous vehicles to anticipate the future trajectories of surrounding agents. To do so, it requires solving mapping, detection, tracking, and then forecasting problems, in a multi-step pipeline. In this complex ...

2024

Nature-based solution enhances resilience to flooding and catalyzes multi-benefits in coastal cities in the Global South

Jérôme Chenal, Paolo Perona, Charlotte Grossiord, Montana Marshall, Emmanuel Qays Dubois

Coastal cities are facing a rise in groundwater levels induced by sea level rise, further triggering saturation excess flooding where groundwater levels reach the topographic surface or reduce the storage capacity of the soil, thus stressing the existing i ...

2024

Technical note: Two-component electrical-conductivity-based hydrograph separation employing an exponential mixing model (EXPECT) provides reliable high-temporal-resolution young water fraction estimates in three small Swiss catchments

Davide Canone, Jana Freiin von Freyberg

The young water fraction represents the portion of water molecules in a stream that have entered the catchment relatively recently, typically within 2-3 months. It can be reliably estimated in spatially heterogeneous and nonstationary catchments from the a ...

Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh2024

A FEM modelling workflow to simulate THM effects in the rock around nuclear waste packages

Matthias Timothee Stanislas Wojnarowicz

High-level waste, stemming from nuclear electricity generation poses significant environmental and safety concerns. Currently, high-level wastes are stored in interim facilities needing constant monitoring and waiting for a definitive solution. Deep geolog ...

EPFL2024

On the importance of the humidity flux for the surface mass balance in the accumulation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Sonja Wahl

It is highly uncertain how the humidity flux between the snow surface and the atmosphere contributes to the surface mass balance (SMB) of the interior Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Due to sparse observations, evaluations of the simulated humidity flux are li ...

Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh2024