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Concept

Outcome (probability)

Publications associées (5)

Microstructural simulation and measurement of elastic modulus evolution of hydrating cement pastes

Karen Scrivener, Cyrille Dunant, Arnaud Charles Albert Muller

Predicting the evolution of stiffness in cement paste requires linking morphological properties of the microstructure to the evolution of mechanical properties. Measures are typically difficult to obtain with sufficient time resolution to capture the trans ...

Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd2020

Risk, Unexpected Uncertainty, and Estimation Uncertainty: Bayesian Learning in Unstable Settings

Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free) reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In ou ...

2011

Genetic Association of Recovery from Eating Disorders: The Role of GABA Receptor SNPs

Pierre Magistretti

Follow-up studies of eating disorders (EDs) suggest outcomes ranging from recovery to chronic illness or death, but predictors of outcome have not been consistently identified. We tested 5151 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in approximately 350 cand ...

2011

Modulation of Attentional Capture by Display Probabilities in Visual Search

Michael Herzog

Attentional capture is often thought to be automatic and not modulable. For example, visual search experiments showed that salient distractor singletons strongly capture attention even when they had to be ignored by the observers. Recently, however, it was ...

2009

Essays on individual decision making under uncertainty

This research project is an experimental study of decision-making in very difficult contexts resembling those encountered in financial markets. The starting point was the empirical observation that financial assets are objects of a very complex kind. Speci ...

EPFL2009