Scenario optimization

The scenario approach or scenario optimization approach is a technique for obtaining solutions to robust optimization and chance-constrained optimization problems based on a sample of the constraints. It also relates to inductive reasoning in modeling and decision-making. The technique has existed for decades as a heuristic approach and has more recently been given a systematic theoretical foundation. In optimization, robustness features translate into constraints that are parameterized by the uncertain elements of the problem. In the scenario method, a solution is obtained by only looking at a random sample of constraints (heuristic approach) called scenarios and a deeply-grounded theory tells the user how “robust” the corresponding solution is related to other constraints. This theory justifies the use of randomization in robust and chance-constrained optimization. At times, scenarios are obtained as random extractions from a model. More often, however, scenarios are instances of the uncertain constraints that are obtained as observations (data-driven science). In this latter case, no model of uncertainty is needed to generate scenarios. Moreover, most remarkably, also in this case scenario optimization comes accompanied by a full-fledged theory because all scenario optimization results are distribution-free and can therefore be applied even when a model of uncertainty is not available. For constraints that are convex (e.g. in semidefinite problems, involving LMIs (Linear Matrix Inequalities)), a deep theoretical analysis has been established which shows that the probability that a new constraint is not satisfied follows a distribution that is dominated by a Beta distribution. This result is tight since it is exact for a whole class of convex problems. More generally, various empirical levels have been shown to follow a Dirichlet distribution, whose marginals are beta distribution. The scenario approach with regularization has also been considered, and handy algorithms with reduced computational complexity are available.