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Alignment of Multiple Configurations Using Hierarchical Models

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Exploiting the Signal-Leak Bias in Diffusion Models

Athanasios Fitsios, Sabine Süsstrunk, Radhakrishna Achanta, Mahmut Sami Arpa, Martin Nicolas Everaert

There is a bias in the inference pipeline of most diffusion models. This bias arises from a signal leak whose distribution deviates from the noise distribution, creating a discrepancy between training and inference processes. We demonstrate that this signa ...

2024

Distribution Inference Risks: Identifying and Mitigating Sources of Leakage

Robert West, Maxime Jean Julien Peyrard, Valentin Hartmann

A large body of work shows that machine learning (ML) models can leak sensitive or confidential information about their training data. Recently, leakage due to distribution inference (or property inference) attacks is gaining attention. In this attack, the ...

IEEE COMPUTER SOC2023

Higher Order Asymptotics: Applications to Satellite Conjunction and Boundary Problems

Soumaya Elkantassi

Higher-order asymptotics provide accurate approximations for use in parametric statistical modelling. In this thesis, we investigate using higher-order approximations in two-specific settings, with a particular emphasis on the tangent exponential model. ...

EPFL2023

An Unbiased Method of Measuring the Ratio of Two Data Sets

Jean-Paul Richard Kneib, Huanyuan Shan

In certain cases of astronomical data analysis, the meaningful physical quantity to extract is the ratio R between two data sets. Examples include the lensing ratio, the interloper rate in spectroscopic redshift samples, and the decay rate of gravitational ...

IOP Publishing Ltd2023

Robust Outlier Rejection for 3D Registration with Variational Bayes

Mathieu Salzmann, Jiancheng Yang, Zheng Dang, Zhen Wei

Learning-based outlier (mismatched correspondence) rejection for robust 3D registration generally formulates the outlier removal as an inlier/outlier classification problem. The core for this to be successful is to learn the discriminative inlier/outlier f ...

Ieee Computer Soc2023

Quantifying uncertain system outputs via the multi-level Monte Carlo method --- distribution and robustness measures

Fabio Nobile, Sebastian Krumscheid, Sundar Subramaniam Ganesh, Quentin Olivier Martin Ayoul--Guilmard

In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the probability distribution, the quantile or the conditional expectation above the quantile, the so called conditional-value-at-risk, of output quantities of complex random differential models by the MLM ...

2023

A Bayesian data assimilation framework for lake 3D hydrodynamic models with a physics-preserving particle filtering method using SPUX-MITgcm v1

Firat Ozdemir, Damien Bouffard, Camille Roland Marie Minaudo

We present a Bayesian inference for a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Lake Geneva with stochastic weather forcing and high-frequency observational datasets. This is achieved by coupling a Bayesian inference package, SPUX, with a hydrodynamics packa ...

COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH2022

Improved framework to estimate travel time and derived distributions in hydrological control volumes

Mitra Asadollahi

Crossing properties of soil saturation, defined as the duration and excursion of soil saturation below and above certain thresholds, are key variables to ecosystem functioning and evolution by primarily influencing the plant and soil microbes physiological ...

EPFL2022

Improved Inference On Risk Measures For Univariate Extremes

Anthony Christopher Davison, Léo Raymond-Belzile

We discuss the use of likelihood asymptotics for inference on risk measures in univariate extreme value problems, focusing on estimation of high quantiles and similar summaries of risk for uncertainty quantification. We study whether higher-order approxima ...

INST MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS-IMS2022

A Variational Inference Approach to Learning Multivariate Wold Processes

Patrick Thiran, Matthias Grossglauser, Negar Kiyavash, Seyed Jalal Etesami, William Trouleau

Temporal point-processes are often used for mathematical modeling of sequences of discrete events with asynchronous timestamps. We focus on a class of temporal point-process models called multivariate Wold processes (MWP). These processes are well suited t ...

MICROTOME PUBLISHING2021

Learning Self-Exciting Temporal Point Processes Under Noisy Observations

William Trouleau

Understanding the diffusion patterns of sequences of interdependent events is a central question for a variety of disciplines. Temporal point processes are a class of elegant and powerful models of such sequences; these processes have become popular across ...

EPFL2021

Bayesian Decision Making in Groups is Hard

Jan Hazla

We study the computations that Bayesian agents undertake when exchanging opinions over a network. The agents act repeatedly on their private information and take myopic actions that maximize their expected utility according to a fully rational posterior be ...

INFORMS2021

Bayesian Methods for the Identification of Distribution Networks

Giancarlo Ferrari Trecate, Pulkit Nahata, Jean-Sébastien Hubert Brouillon

The increasing integration of intermittent renewable generation, especially at the distribution level, necessitates advanced planning and optimisation methodologies contingent on the knowledge of the admittance matrix, capturing the topology and line param ...

IEEE2021

Statistical limits of high-dimensional inference problems

Clément Dominique Luneau

This thesis focuses on two kinds of statistical inference problems in signal processing and data science. The first problem is the estimation of a structured informative tensor from the observation of a noisy tensor in which it is buried. The structure com ...

EPFL2021

Discrete-Choice Mining of Social Processes

Victor Kristof

Poor decisions and selfish behaviors give rise to seemingly intractable global problems, such as the lack of transparency in democratic processes, the spread of conspiracy theories, and the rise in greenhouse gas emissions. However, people are more predict ...

EPFL2021

Fast Bayesian estimation of spatial count data models

Rico Krüger

Spatial count data models are used to explain and predict the frequency of phenomena such as traffic accidents in geographically distinct entities such as census tracts or road segments. These models are typically estimated using Bayesian Markov chain Mont ...

2021

Distributionally Robust Optimization with Markovian Data

Daniel Kuhn, Tobias Sutter, Mengmeng Li

We study a stochastic program where the probability distribution of the uncertain problem parameters is unknown and only indirectly observed via finitely many correlated samples generated by an unknown Markov chain with d states. We propose a data-driven d ...

JMLR-JOURNAL MACHINE LEARNING RESEARCH2021

Epidemic mitigation by statistical inference from contact tracing data

Lenka Zdeborová, Florent Gérard Krzakala, Maria Refinetti, Indaco Biazzo

Contact tracing is an essential tool to mitigate the impact of a pandemic, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of attention has been ...

National Academy of Sciences2021

Adaptive Path Interpolation Method for Sparse Systems: Application to a Censored Block Model

Nicolas Macris, Jean François Emmanuel Barbier, Chun Lam Chan

Recently, a new adaptive path interpolation method has been developed as a simple and versatile scheme to calculate exactly the asymptotic mutual information of Bayesian inference problems defined on dense factor graphs. These include random linear and gen ...

IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC2021

Probabilistic and Bayesian methods for uncertainty quantification of deterministic and stochastic differential equations

Giacomo Garegnani

In this thesis we explore uncertainty quantification of forward and inverse problems involving differential equations. Differential equations are widely employed for modeling natural and social phenomena, with applications in engineering, chemistry, meteor ...

EPFL2021