Lecture

Structural Modelling and the Kalman Filter: Time Series

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In course

MATH-342: Time series

A first course in statistical time series analysis and applications. ...

Description

This lecture covers structural modelling in time series, including trend, cyclical, seasonal, and irregular components. It delves into the mathematical mechanisms to model these components, as well as the Kalman filter for prediction and estimation in state space modelling.

Instructor

Sofia Charlotta Olhede

I am a professor of Statistics at EPFL. I did my PhD in Mathematics at Imperial College London, and graduated in 2003. I was an assistant professor (lecturer) at Imperial College London 2002-2006, and an associate professor (senior lecturer) 2006-2007. In 2007 I moved to University College London and became a full professor. I moved to EPFL in 2019, and in 2018 I became an Institute of Mathematical Statistics Fellow with citation “For seminal contributions to the theory and application of large and heteroge

Official source

Ontological neighbourhood

Statistics

Data analysis: Time series

Related concepts (32)

Time series

In mathematics, a time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. Examples of time series are heights of ocean tides, counts of sunspots, and the daily closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A time series is very frequently plotted via a run chart (which is a temporal line chart).

Kalman filter

For statistics and control theory, Kalman filtering, also known as linear quadratic estimation (LQE), is an algorithm that uses a series of measurements observed over time, including statistical noise and other inaccuracies, and produces estimates of unknown variables that tend to be more accurate than those based on a single measurement alone, by estimating a joint probability distribution over the variables for each timeframe. The filter is named after Rudolf E. Kálmán, who was one of the primary developers of its theory.

Ensemble Kalman filter

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a recursive filter suitable for problems with a large number of variables, such as discretizations of partial differential equations in geophysical models. The EnKF originated as a version of the Kalman filter for large problems (essentially, the covariance matrix is replaced by the sample covariance), and it is now an important data assimilation component of ensemble forecasting.

Particle filter

Particle filters, or sequential Monte Carlo methods, are a set of Monte Carlo algorithms used to find approximate solutions for filtering problems for nonlinear state-space systems, such as signal processing and Bayesian statistical inference. The filtering problem consists of estimating the internal states in dynamical systems when partial observations are made and random perturbations are present in the sensors as well as in the dynamical system.

Seasonality

In time series data, seasonality is the presence of variations that occur at specific regular intervals less than a year, such as weekly, monthly, or quarterly. Seasonality may be caused by various factors, such as weather, vacation, and holidays and consists of periodic, repetitive, and generally regular and predictable patterns in the levels of a time series. Seasonal fluctuations in a time series can be contrasted with cyclical patterns. The latter occur when the data exhibits rises and falls that are not of a fixed period.

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