Mediaspace scheduled maintenance: Aug 25, 2026 07:00 - 12:00 AM. During this time, videos will be temporarily unavailable. Check status updates.

Lecture

Structural Modelling and the Kalman Filter: Time Series

In course

MATH-342: Time series

A first course in statistical time series analysis and applications. ...

Description

This lecture covers structural modelling in time series, including trend, cyclical, seasonal, and irregular components. It delves into the mathematical mechanisms to model these components, as well as the Kalman filter for prediction and estimation in state space modelling.

Instructor

Sofia Charlotta Olhede

Sofia Olhede is a professor of Statistics at EPFL in Switzerland. She joined UCL prior to this in 2007, before which she was a senior lecturer of statistics (associate professor) at Imperial College London (2006-2007), a lecturer of statistics (assistant professor) (2002-2006), where she also completed her PhD in 2003 and MSci in 2000. She has held three research fellowships while at UCL: UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Springboard fellowship as well as a five-year Leadership fellowship, and now holds a European Research Council Consolidator fellowship. Sofia has contributed to the study of stochastic processes; time series, random fields and networks. Sofia was part of the multi-institutional team that set up the UK national data science institute, the Alan Turing Institute. She organised and served as chair of the science committee that developed the initial 500 000 pounds scientific programme of the institute; peer-reviewing over 100 workshop proposals and hosting over 30. She also chaired the first recruitment wave of the institute hiring 13 data scientists as a multi-university recruitment drive. Sofia was a member of the Royal Society and British Academy Data Governance Working Group, and the Royal Society working group on machine learning. Most recently she was one of 3 commissioners on a law society commission on the usage of algorithms in the justice system.

Official source

Ontological neighbourhood

Statistics

Data analysis: Time series

Related concepts (32)

Time series

In mathematics, a time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. Examples of time series are heights of ocean tides, counts of sunspots, and the daily closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A time series is very frequently plotted via a run chart (which is a temporal line chart).

Kalman filter

For statistics and control theory, Kalman filtering, also known as linear quadratic estimation (LQE), is an algorithm that uses a series of measurements observed over time, including statistical noise and other inaccuracies, and produces estimates of unknown variables that tend to be more accurate than those based on a single measurement alone, by estimating a joint probability distribution over the variables for each timeframe. The filter is named after Rudolf E. Kálmán, who was one of the primary developers of its theory.

Ensemble Kalman filter

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a recursive filter suitable for problems with a large number of variables, such as discretizations of partial differential equations in geophysical models. The EnKF originated as a version of the Kalman filter for large problems (essentially, the covariance matrix is replaced by the sample covariance), and it is now an important data assimilation component of ensemble forecasting.

Particle filter

Particle filters, or sequential Monte Carlo methods, are a set of Monte Carlo algorithms used to find approximate solutions for filtering problems for nonlinear state-space systems, such as signal processing and Bayesian statistical inference. The filtering problem consists of estimating the internal states in dynamical systems when partial observations are made and random perturbations are present in the sensors as well as in the dynamical system.

Seasonality

In time series data, seasonality is the presence of variations that occur at specific regular intervals less than a year, such as weekly, monthly, or quarterly. Seasonality may be caused by various factors, such as weather, vacation, and holidays and consists of periodic, repetitive, and generally regular and predictable patterns in the levels of a time series. Seasonal fluctuations in a time series can be contrasted with cyclical patterns. The latter occur when the data exhibits rises and falls that are not of a fixed period.

Related lectures (32)

Kalman Filter: Time Series

Covers structural modeling, state space models, and the Kalman filter in time series analysis.

Time Series: Structural Modelling and Kalman Filter

Covers structural modelling, Kalman Filter, stationarity, estimation methods, forecasting, and ARCH models in time series.

Time Series: Parametric Estimation

Covers parametric estimation, seasonal modeling, Box-Jenkins methods, variance calculations, and dependence measures in time series analysis.

Time Series: Fundamentals and Models

Explores the fundamentals of time series analysis, including stationarity, linear processes, forecasting, and practical aspects.

Time Series: Common Models