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Lecture

Markov Chains: States Classification

Description

This lecture covers the classification of states in Markov chains, introducing the concept of communicating classes and absorbing states. It explains hitting times, hitting probabilities, and the calculation of expected hitting times. The lecture also delves into birth and death chains, illustrating first transition analysis and absorption probabilities. The instructor demonstrates the application of these concepts through examples like Gambler's Ruin, emphasizing the importance of understanding the probability of reaching certain states. The lecture concludes with discussions on homogeneous difference equations and the expected duration of games in various scenarios.

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Related concepts (32)

Markov chain

A Markov chain or Markov process is a stochastic model describing a sequence of possible events in which the probability of each event depends only on the state attained in the previous event. Informally, this may be thought of as, "What happens next depends only on the state of affairs now." A countably infinite sequence, in which the chain moves state at discrete time steps, gives a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC). A continuous-time process is called a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC).

Linear differential equation

In mathematics, a linear differential equation is a differential equation that is defined by a linear polynomial in the unknown function and its derivatives, that is an equation of the form where a0(x), ..., an(x) and b(x) are arbitrary differentiable functions that do not need to be linear, and y′, ..., y(n) are the successive derivatives of an unknown function y of the variable x. Such an equation is an ordinary differential equation (ODE).

Hidden Markov model

A hidden Markov model (HMM) is a statistical Markov model in which the system being modeled is assumed to be a Markov process — call it — with unobservable ("hidden") states. As part of the definition, HMM requires that there be an observable process whose outcomes are "influenced" by the outcomes of in a known way.

Markov model

In probability theory, a Markov model is a stochastic model used to model pseudo-randomly changing systems. It is assumed that future states depend only on the current state, not on the events that occurred before it (that is, it assumes the Markov property). Generally, this assumption enables reasoning and computation with the model that would otherwise be intractable. For this reason, in the fields of predictive modelling and probabilistic forecasting, it is desirable for a given model to exhibit the Markov property.

Markov property

In probability theory and statistics, the term Markov property refers to the memoryless property of a stochastic process, which means that its future evolution is independent of its history. It is named after the Russian mathematician Andrey Markov. The term strong Markov property is similar to the Markov property, except that the meaning of "present" is defined in terms of a random variable known as a stopping time. The term Markov assumption is used to describe a model where the Markov property is assumed to hold, such as a hidden Markov model.

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