Lecture

Risk Analysis Methods: Part 1

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In course

CIVIL-438: Risk analysis and management

Le cours vise à former les étudiants aux méthodes et outils permettant d'appréhender de manière fondée et scientifique la question de l'analyse et de la gestion des risques technologiques et naturels, avec une attention portée au domaine du Génie civil. ...

Description

This lecture covers the families of risk analysis methods, including deductive and inductive approaches, failure modes analysis, and criticality assessment. It explores the phases of risk analysis, from preliminary assessment to integrated risk management, emphasizing the role of engineers. The instructor presents various methods such as cause trees, Monte Carlo simulations, and qualitative risk analysis. The lecture delves into the principles of risk assessment, terminologies, and the importance of functional analysis in identifying potential failures. It also discusses the main families of methods, selection criteria, and the application areas of different risk analysis techniques, focusing on the preliminary risk analysis (APR) and its significance in identifying and managing risks.

Instructor

Laurent Vulliet

EDUCATION 2016 Board Member Certificate, Swiss Board School, Switzerland 2008 AMP (Advanced Management Program), INSEAD, Fontainebleau, France 1986 PhD (Dr sc. tech.), EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland 1980 Ms, Civil Engineering (Dipl. Bauing. ETH), ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES 1994 - Present Professor, EPFL. Director of the Soil Mechanics Laboratory (1994-2008). Promoted from Associate to Full Professor in 1996. Part-time position since 2008 2008 - 2015 CEO, BG Consulting Engineers, Lausanne, Switzerland. 2001 - 2008 Dean, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering (ENAC), Ecole polytechnique fédérale, Lausanne (EPFL) 1999 - 2001 Head, Civil Engineering Department, EPFL 1989 - 1993 Senior Engineer, De Cérenville Géotechnique SA, Ecublens, Switzerland 1987 - 1989 Lecturer, Department of Civil Engineering and Engineering Mechanics, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA 1986 Invited Researcher, Laboratoire central des ponts et chaussées (LCPC), Paris, France 1981 - 1986 Research assistant, and PhD student, Soil Mechanics Laboratory (LMS), EPFL. Thesis on the modeling of natural creeping slopes. Co-advisors Prof. E. Recordon (EPFL) and Prof. K. Hutter (TU Darmstadt) BOARDS / COUNCILS

Member of the Board of Directors, Implenia, Dietlikon, Switzerland (2016 - present)
Member of the Board of Directors, BG Consulting Engineers, Lausanne (2006 - 2015)
Vice-President, Swiss Society of Engineers and Architects (SIA). 2009-2013.
Member, Foundation Council, Foundation Les Bois Chamblard, financing research in Environmental Sciences at EPFL (focusing on bio-diversity). 2003-present
Member, Foundation Council of the Presses Polytechniques et Universitaires Romandes (PPUR), Lausanne. 1995-present
Member, Stiftungsrat der Präventionsstiftung der KGV (a Swiss foundation for the financing of applied research in the domain of natural risks from Cantonal Building Insurances). 2003-2008
Member of the Board of Directors, Stump Bohr AG, Nänikon. 1998 2001

PROFESSIONAL SOCIETIES

Swiss Society of Engineers and Architects (SIA)
American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
International Association for Computer Meth. and Advances in Geomechanics (IACMAG)
International Society for Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering (ISSMGE)
International Society for Rock Mechanics (ISRM)
Swiss Society for Soil and Rock Mechanics (SSMSR)
Swiss Society for Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics (SGEB)

SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEES

Swiss National Science Foundation (NSF): member of the Foundation Council and of the Electoral Commission (1996-2003)
Extra-Parliamentary National Commission on Natural Disasters (PLANAT): member of the Commission 1997-2007 (member of the Executive Board from 1997 to 2000)
Natural Hazards Competence Centre CENAT (ETH Domain): founder member and member of the Board of Directors (1995-2007)
Alliance of European Research Laboratories (ALERT), member of the Board of Directors (1995-2009)
Beratende Kommission Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL): member (2000-2004)
Centro Stefano Franscini (CSF, Monte Verità): member of the Scientific Advisory Committee (1997-2007)
EPFL Press and Information Commission (CPI). Member 1994-94, President 1995-2000

EDITORIAL BOARDS

Adjunct Editor-in-Chief, Revue française de génie civil (Hermès); founder member (1996-Present). Cette revue est devenue "European Journal of Environmental and Civil Engineering"
Editorial Advisory Board, Int. J. Num. Analyt. Meth. in Geomech., John Wiley (1997-2009).
Editorial Board, Int. J. of Geomechanics (2000-2009).
Editorial Board, Computer & Geotechnics, Elsevier (2001-2009).
Editorial Board, Rivista Italiana di Geotecnica (1997-2009).

Official source

Related concepts (31)

Risk assessment

Risk assessment determines possible mishaps, their likelihood and consequences, and the tolerances for such events. The results of this process may be expressed in a quantitative or qualitative fashion. Risk assessment is an inherent part of a broader risk management strategy to help reduce any potential risk-related consequences. More precisely, risk assessment identifies and analyses potential (future) events that may negatively impact individuals, assets, and/or the environment (i.e. hazard analysis).

Probabilistic risk assessment

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a systematic and comprehensive methodology to evaluate risks associated with a complex engineered technological entity (such as an airliner or a nuclear power plant) or the effects of stressors on the environment (probabilistic environmental risk assessment, or PERA). Risk in a PRA is defined as a feasible detrimental outcome of an activity or action. In a PRA, risk is characterized by two quantities: the magnitude (severity) of the possible adverse consequence(s), and the likelihood (probability) of occurrence of each consequence.

Risk

In simple terms, risk is the possibility of something bad happening. Risk involves uncertainty about the effects/implications of an activity with respect to something that humans value (such as health, well-being, wealth, property or the environment), often focusing on negative, undesirable consequences. Many different definitions have been proposed. The international standard definition of risk for common understanding in different applications is "effect of uncertainty on objectives".

Civil engineering

Civil engineering is a professional engineering discipline that deals with the design, construction, and maintenance of the physical and naturally built environment, including public works such as roads, bridges, canals, dams, airports, sewage systems, pipelines, structural components of buildings, and railways. Civil engineering is traditionally broken into a number of sub-disciplines. It is considered the second-oldest engineering discipline after military engineering, and it is defined to distinguish non-military engineering from military engineering.

Hypothetico-deductive model

The hypothetico-deductive model or method is a proposed description of the scientific method. According to it, scientific inquiry proceeds by formulating a hypothesis in a form that can be falsifiable, using a test on observable data where the outcome is not yet known. A test outcome that could have and does run contrary to predictions of the hypothesis is taken as a falsification of the hypothesis. A test outcome that could have, but does not run contrary to the hypothesis corroborates the theory.

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Risk Analysis Methods

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Risk Diagnostic and Analysis: What-If Method

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Risks Related to Hydraulic Developments

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Risk Analysis and Management: Basic Notions II

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