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Lecture

Risk Diagnostic and Analysis: What-If Method

In course

ENG-430: Risk management

This course provides students with the opportunity to acquire the methods and tools necessary for modern risk management from an engineering perspective. It emphasizes stakeholders, resources, and objectives, while ensuring economic and social sustainabili ...

Description

This lecture covers risk diagnostic and analysis methods, focusing on the 'What-If' analysis, fault tree analysis, and event tree analysis. It explains how these methods help in identifying potential risks, analyzing consequences, and proposing mitigation measures based on deductive and inductive approaches.

Instructor

Thierry Meyer

Thierry Meyer received in 1986 a diploma degree (MSc) in chemical engineering from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology at Lausanne (EPFL). He was awarded in 1989 a PhD at EPFL for his thesis on micromixing in highly viscous polymeric media. He joined the Institute of Chemical Engineering from 1989 till 1993 as senior scientist in the field of polymerization reactions. In 1994 he joined Ciba-Geigy SA in the pigment division as successively development chemist, head of development a.i. and finally production manager for high performance pigments. Returning to the Institute of Chemical Engineering at EPFL in Lausanne by the end of 1998, he was nominated maître denseignement et de recherche (MER) for leading a new research group in the field of polymers and supercritical fluids, and teaching to chemists, chemical engineers and material sciences, disciplines as process development, introduction to chemical engineering, polymer and organic chemistry at master and bachelor program. In 2005 he owned the responsibility of the Occupational Health and Safety of the school of basic sciences on top of his research activities dealing with risk management and supercritical fluids. He is presently teaching introduction to chemical engineering at bachelor level, risk management at master level and specific courses on safety and engineering risk management in continuing education. He acts also as consultant and expert in risk assessment and chemical engineering matters by the ICC (International Chamber of Commerce) of the World Business Organization, by several consultancy companies and by major and SMEs chemical industries. Thierry Meyer is currently member of several international associations of the European Federation of Chemical Engineering, American institution of chemical engineering, American chemical society and senior member of the American Institute of Chemical Engineers. He was elected chairman of the European Working Party on Polymer Reaction Engineering from 2001 till 2006. He his currently the Swiss academic member of the European Working Party on Loss Prevention and Safety Promotion as well as of the European Working Party on Education. He is member of several editorial boards: Chemical Engineering Research and Design, Macromolecular Reaction Engineering, Chemical Engineering and Technology, Journal of Chemical Health and Safety.

Official source

Related concepts (32)

Root cause analysis

In science and engineering, root cause analysis (RCA) is a method of problem solving used for identifying the root causes of faults or problems. It is widely used in IT operations, manufacturing, telecommunications, industrial process control, accident analysis (e.g., in aviation, rail transport, or nuclear plants), medicine (for medical diagnosis), healthcare industry (e.g., for epidemiology), etc. Root cause analysis is a form of inductive (first create a theory [root] based on empirical evidence [causes]) and deductive (test the theory [underlying causal mechanisms] with empirical data) inference.

Risk assessment

Risk assessment determines possible mishaps, their likelihood and consequences, and the tolerances for such events. The results of this process may be expressed in a quantitative or qualitative fashion. Risk assessment is an inherent part of a broader risk management strategy to help reduce any potential risk-related consequences. More precisely, risk assessment identifies and analyses potential (future) events that may negatively impact individuals, assets, and/or the environment (i.e. hazard analysis).

Probabilistic risk assessment

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a systematic and comprehensive methodology to evaluate risks associated with a complex engineered technological entity (such as an airliner or a nuclear power plant) or the effects of stressors on the environment (probabilistic environmental risk assessment, or PERA). Risk in a PRA is defined as a feasible detrimental outcome of an activity or action. In a PRA, risk is characterized by two quantities: the magnitude (severity) of the possible adverse consequence(s), and the likelihood (probability) of occurrence of each consequence.

Fault tree analysis

Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a type of failure analysis in which an undesired state of a system is examined. This analysis method is mainly used in safety engineering and reliability engineering to understand how systems can fail, to identify the best ways to reduce risk and to determine (or get a feeling for) event rates of a safety accident or a particular system level (functional) failure.

Fukushima nuclear disaster

On 11 March 2011, a nuclear accident occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Ōkuma, Fukushima, Japan. The proximate cause of the disaster was the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, which remains the most powerful earthquake ever recorded in Japan. The earthquake triggered a powerful tsunami, with 13- to 14-meter-high waves damaging the nuclear power plant's emergency diesel generators, leading to a loss of electric power.

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Risk Analysis Methods

Introduces risk analysis methods such as 'What if', FTA, ETA, and dynamic methods, including Bayesian networks and uncertainty management.

Risk Diagnostic and Analysis

Covers risk analysis, Preliminary Hazard Analysis, checklists, and Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis.

Risks Related to Hydraulic Developments

Explores risks in hydraulic developments, including economic, technological, and human risks, emphasizing risk analysis and mitigation measures.