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Lecture

Conditional Expectation Properties

In course

MATH-431: Theory of stochastic calculus

Introduction to the mathematical theory of stochastic calculus: construction of the Ito stochastic integral, proof of the Ito formula, introduction to stochastic differential equations, Girsanov's theorem and the Feynman-Kac formula, the martingale represe ...

Description

This lecture covers the demonstrations of conditional expectation properties, focusing on proving the measurability of certain variables, the linearity of expectations, and the concept of conditional expectation as the best estimator. The instructor explains the independence of random variables, the importance of countable collections in probability, and the definition of conditional expectation. Through various mathematical demonstrations, the lecture emphasizes the key properties and relationships between conditional expectations and random variables.

Instructors (2)

Thomas Mountford

D'origine britannique, né en 1961. Il a reçu la bourse présidentielle des jeunes investisseurs (Presidential Young Investigator Grant) en 1990 et le prix de la Fraternité Sloan (Sloan Fellowship) en 1991. Son travail montre que les valeurs critiques d'une classe large de de systèmes de particules proches sont égales à 1, et que, suite à plusieurs travaux sur la trajectoire du mouvement brownien, incluant une simulation numérique, le nombre d'îlots browniens en 2 dimensions tend vers l'infini quand leurs tailles tendent vers 0. Il reçoit le prix Rosenbaum en 1993 lui ouvrant ainsi les portes du Isaac Newton Institute à Cambridge. Il est également décoré par le prix Rollo Davidson en 1995 et nommé membre honoraire de l'Institute of Mathematical Statistics en 2001. Assistant Profeseur de Mathematique a UCLA 1987- 1991 Associate Professeur de Mathematique a UCLA 1991-1993 Professeur de Mathematique a UCLA 1993-2001 Professeur Departement de mathématiques, EPFL dès 2001

Robert Dalang

Robert Dalang, né en 1961, a reçu le diplôme de Mathématicien-EPFL en 1983 et est lauréat du Prix Dommer. Il passe l'année 1985-86 à Cornell University (USA) comme chercheur invité. Il obtient le doctorat au Département de mathématiques de l'EPFL en 1987. Son domaine de spécialisation est la théorie des processeurs stochastiques. En 1987, Robert Dalang est nommé professeur assistant au Département de statistiques de l'Université de Californie à Berkeley (USA). En 1988, il reçoit une bourse post-doctorale du Fonds national scientifique américain et effectue des recherches sur les propriétés markoviennes de processus stochastiques à plusieurs paramètres. En 1990, il est nommé à Tufts University (Boston, USA). Il est promu professeur associé en mai 1993. Une partie importante de ses recherches se font dans le cadre de contrats avec le Fonds national scientifique américain et l'Office de la recherche de l'armée américaine. En collaboration avec le Prof. R. Cairoli du Département de mathématiques de l'EPFL, il a écrit un livre sur l'optimisation stochastique séquentielle publié en 1996 aux éditions John Wiley. M. Dalang est nommé professeur extraordinaire de probabilités au Département de mathématiques en 1995. Il y poursuit des travaux de recherche en processus stochastiques et probabilité appliquée et participe à l'enseignement des processus stochastiques, de la théorie des probabilités et des cours de mathématiques aux sections d'ingénieurs. Il dirige régulièrement des thèses de doctorats, est éditeur de plusieurs journaux de recherche mathématique et travail en collaboration avec des chercheurs de plusieurs universités européennes et américaines.

Official source

Ontological neighbourhood

Statistics

Statistical inference: Mathematical statistics

Related concepts (29)

Probability

Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical descriptions of how likely an event is to occur, or how likely it is that a proposition is true. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1, where, roughly speaking, 0 indicates impossibility of the event and 1 indicates certainty. The higher the probability of an event, the more likely it is that the event will occur. A simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased) coin.

Random variable

A random variable (also called random quantity, aleatory variable, or stochastic variable) is a mathematical formalization of a quantity or object which depends on random events. The term 'random variable' can be misleading as it is not actually random nor a variable, but rather it is a function from possible outcomes (e.g., the possible upper sides of a flipped coin such as heads and tails ) in a sample space (e.g., the set ) to a measurable space (e.g., in which 1 corresponding to and −1 corresponding to ), often to the real numbers.

Probability theory

Probability theory or probability calculus is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability. Although there are several different probability interpretations, probability theory treats the concept in a rigorous mathematical manner by expressing it through a set of axioms. Typically these axioms formalise probability in terms of a probability space, which assigns a measure taking values between 0 and 1, termed the probability measure, to a set of outcomes called the sample space.

Conditional probability

In probability theory, conditional probability is a measure of the probability of an event occurring, given that another event (by assumption, presumption, assertion or evidence) has already occurred. This particular method relies on event B occurring with some sort of relationship with another event A. In this event, the event B can be analyzed by a conditional probability with respect to A. If the event of interest is A and the event B is known or assumed to have occurred, "the conditional probability of A given B", or "the probability of A under the condition B", is usually written as P(AB) or occasionally P_B(A).

Complex random variable

In probability theory and statistics, complex random variables are a generalization of real-valued random variables to complex numbers, i.e. the possible values a complex random variable may take are complex numbers. Complex random variables can always be considered as pairs of real random variables: their real and imaginary parts. Therefore, the distribution of one complex random variable may be interpreted as the joint distribution of two real random variables.

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