Lecture

Bayesian Decision Theory: Utility, Risk, and Classification

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In course

EE-311: Fundamentals of machine learning

Ce cours présente une vue générale des techniques d'apprentissage automatique, passant en revue les algorithmes, le formalisme théorique et les protocoles expérimentaux. ...

Description

This lecture introduces Bayesian decision theory, focusing on utility, risk, and classification. It covers the concept of cost functions, maximum expected utility, and the Bayes decision rule. The lecture contrasts empirical risk minimization with the Bayesian framework, emphasizing parameterizing distributions and minimizing expected loss. It discusses Bayes risk, decision rules, and classification using the Bayes decision rule. The lecture also explores different cost functions, such as the 0/1 cost, and their implications in binary classification problems. Finally, it delves into decision regions and the equivalence of the Bayes decision rule with decision by regions.

Instructors (2)

Michael Stefan Daniel Liebling

Teaching & PhD Past EPFL PhD Students as codirector Christian Jaques, Olivia Mariani, Adrian Shajkofci, François Thierry M Marelli Courses Fundamentals of machine learning EE-311 This course provides a general overview of machine learning, covering the main algorithms, theoretical formalisms, and experimental protocols.

François Fleuret

Official source

Related concepts (32)

Bayes estimator

In estimation theory and decision theory, a Bayes estimator or a Bayes action is an estimator or decision rule that minimizes the posterior expected value of a loss function (i.e., the posterior expected loss). Equivalently, it maximizes the posterior expectation of a utility function. An alternative way of formulating an estimator within Bayesian statistics is maximum a posteriori estimation. Suppose an unknown parameter is known to have a prior distribution .

Risk

In simple terms, risk is the possibility of something bad happening. Risk involves uncertainty about the effects/implications of an activity with respect to something that humans value (such as health, well-being, wealth, property or the environment), often focusing on negative, undesirable consequences. Many different definitions have been proposed. The international standard definition of risk for common understanding in different applications is "effect of uncertainty on objectives".

Expected utility hypothesis

The expected utility hypothesis is a popular concept in economics that serves as a reference guide for decision making when the payoff is uncertain. The theory describes which options rational individuals should choose in a situation with uncertainty, based on their risk aversion. The expected utility hypothesis states an agent chooses between risky prospects by comparing expected utility values (i.e. the weighted sum of adding the respective utility values of payoffs multiplied by their probabilities).

Risk assessment

Risk assessment determines possible mishaps, their likelihood and consequences, and the tolerances for such events. The results of this process may be expressed in a quantitative or qualitative fashion. Risk assessment is an inherent part of a broader risk management strategy to help reduce any potential risk-related consequences. More precisely, risk assessment identifies and analyses potential (future) events that may negatively impact individuals, assets, and/or the environment (i.e. hazard analysis).

Financial risk

Financial risk is any of various types of risk associated with financing, including financial transactions that include company loans in risk of default. Often it is understood to include only downside risk, meaning the potential for financial loss and uncertainty about its extent. A science has evolved around managing market and financial risk under the general title of modern portfolio theory initiated by Harry Markowitz in 1952 with his article, "Portfolio Selection".

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