Lecture

Stochastic Simulation: Introduction and G/G/1 Queueing Model

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In course

MATH-414: Stochastic simulation

The student who follows this course will get acquainted with computational tools used to analyze systems with uncertainty arising in engineering, physics, chemistry, and economics. Focus will be on sampling methods as Monte Carlo, quasi Monte Carlo, Mark ...

Description

This lecture introduces the stochastic simulations course, covering the organization, course material, and motivating examples. It delves into the G/G/1 queueing model, discussing the arrival, waiting, and service times of customers, as well as the theoretical and practical aspects of simulating such a system. Additionally, it explores computational finance topics like insurance risk models and option pricing, computational statistics concepts such as likelihood ratio tests, and computational physics applications like the Ising model. The course content includes random variable generation, Monte Carlo methods, variance reduction techniques, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and more.

Instructor

Fabio Nobile

Teaching & PhD PhD Students Veronica Montanaro, Matteo Raviola, Francesca Bettinelli, Eliott Van Dieren, Riccardo Saporiti, Giacomo Mossinelli, Noé Stauffer, Fabio Zoccolan Past EPFL PhD Students Diane Sylvie Guignard, Francesco Tesei, Eleonora Musharbash, Matthieu Claude Martin, Davide Pradovera, Sundar Subramaniam Ganesh, Eva Vidlicková, Juan Pablo Madrigal Cianci, Andrea Zanoni, Thomas Simon Spencer Trigo Trindade Past EPFL PhD Students as codirector Michele Pisaroni Courses Advanced analysis II - ve

Official source

Related concepts (29)

Likelihood function

In statistical inference, the likelihood function quantifies the plausibility of parameter values characterizing a statistical model in light of observed data. Its most typical usage is to compare possible parameter values (under a fixed set of observations and a particular model), where higher values of likelihood are preferred because they correspond to more probable parameter values.

Likelihood-ratio test

In statistics, the likelihood-ratio test assesses the goodness of fit of two competing statistical models, specifically one found by maximization over the entire parameter space and another found after imposing some constraint, based on the ratio of their likelihoods. If the constraint (i.e., the null hypothesis) is supported by the observed data, the two likelihoods should not differ by more than sampling error. Thus the likelihood-ratio test tests whether this ratio is significantly different from one, or equivalently whether its natural logarithm is significantly different from zero.

Likelihood principle

In statistics, the likelihood principle is the proposition that, given a statistical model, all the evidence in a sample relevant to model parameters is contained in the likelihood function. A likelihood function arises from a probability density function considered as a function of its distributional parameterization argument.

Bayesian inference

Bayesian inference (ˈbeɪziən or ˈbeɪʒən ) is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes' theorem is used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. Bayesian inference is an important technique in statistics, and especially in mathematical statistics. Bayesian updating is particularly important in the dynamic analysis of a sequence of data. Bayesian inference has found application in a wide range of activities, including science, engineering, philosophy, medicine, sport, and law.

Relative likelihood

In statistics, when selecting a statistical model for given data, the relative likelihood compares the relative plausibilities of different candidate models or of different values of a parameter of a single model. Assume that we are given some data x for which we have a statistical model with parameter θ. Suppose that the maximum likelihood estimate for θ is . Relative plausibilities of other θ values may be found by comparing the likelihoods of those other values with the likelihood of .

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