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Lecture

Martingales and Brownian Motion: Probability of Visiting Origin and Arcsine Law

Description

This lecture covers the probability of visiting the origin and the arcsine law in the context of martingales and Brownian motion. Starting with the technical explanations at 3'27'' and the main lecture at 7'55'', the slides discuss the probability of visiting the origin, symmetry in probability, and invariance by translation of space. The lecture delves into the calculation of probabilities, the formalism of total probabilities, and the justification behind certain mathematical expressions. It concludes with insights into the density of specific variables and their implications.

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Related concepts (24)

Probability

Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical descriptions of how likely an event is to occur, or how likely it is that a proposition is true. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1, where, roughly speaking, 0 indicates impossibility of the event and 1 indicates certainty. The higher the probability of an event, the more likely it is that the event will occur. A simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased) coin.

Probability theory

Probability theory or probability calculus is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability. Although there are several different probability interpretations, probability theory treats the concept in a rigorous mathematical manner by expressing it through a set of axioms. Typically these axioms formalise probability in terms of a probability space, which assigns a measure taking values between 0 and 1, termed the probability measure, to a set of outcomes called the sample space.

Probability axioms

The Kolmogorov axioms are the foundations of probability theory introduced by Russian mathematician Andrey Kolmogorov in 1933. These axioms remain central and have direct contributions to mathematics, the physical sciences, and real-world probability cases. An alternative approach to formalising probability, favoured by some Bayesians, is given by Cox's theorem. The assumptions as to setting up the axioms can be summarised as follows: Let be a measure space with being the probability of some event , and .

Event (probability theory)

In probability theory, an event is a set of outcomes of an experiment (a subset of the sample space) to which a probability is assigned. A single outcome may be an element of many different events, and different events in an experiment are usually not equally likely, since they may include very different groups of outcomes. An event consisting of only a single outcome is called an or an ; that is, it is a singleton set. An event is said to if contains the outcome of the experiment (or trial) (that is, if ).

Symmetry

Symmetry () in everyday language refers to a sense of harmonious and beautiful proportion and balance. In mathematics, the term has a more precise definition and is usually used to refer to an object that is invariant under some transformations, such as translation, reflection, rotation, or scaling. Although these two meanings of the word can sometimes be told apart, they are intricately related, and hence are discussed together in this article.

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