Lecture

Aggregation: Forecasting

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Description

This lecture covers the concept of aggregation in choice models, emphasizing the need for indicators about aggregate demand rather than individual predictions. It explores the calculation of aggregate market shares using disaggregate models and discusses techniques like sample enumeration and micro simulation for handling large datasets.

In MOOC

Introduction to Discrete Choice Models

Human behavior is complex, and unpredictable. Or is it? Predicting the behavior using mathematical models is the topic of this course. More specifically, we focus on choice modeling, in order to obtain disaggregate demand models. Focusing on the logit model, the course covers in details the specification of the model, the estimation of its parameters, the validation and the application. Exercises using the software Biogeme are also proposed. Concrete case studies with real data sets are provided.

Official source

Related concepts (21)

Aggregate demand

In macroeconomics, aggregate demand (AD) or domestic final demand (DFD) is the total demand for final goods and services in an economy at a given time. It is often called effective demand, though at other times this term is distinguished. This is the demand for the gross domestic product of a country. It specifies the amount of goods and services that will be purchased at all possible price levels. Consumer spending, investment, corporate and government expenditure, and net exports make up the aggregate demand.

Aggregate supply

In economics, aggregate supply (AS) or domestic final supply (DFS) is the total supply of goods and services that firms in a national economy plan on selling during a specific time period. It is the total amount of goods and services that firms are willing and able to sell at a given price level in an economy. There are two main reasons why the amount of aggregate output supplied might rise as price level P rises, i.e., why the AS curve is upward sloping: The short-run AS curve is drawn given some nominal variables such as the nominal wage rate, which is assumed fixed in the short run.

Cluster sampling

In statistics, cluster sampling is a sampling plan used when mutually homogeneous yet internally heterogeneous groupings are evident in a statistical population. It is often used in marketing research. In this sampling plan, the total population is divided into these groups (known as clusters) and a simple random sample of the groups is selected. The elements in each cluster are then sampled. If all elements in each sampled cluster are sampled, then this is referred to as a "one-stage" cluster sampling plan.

Supply and demand

In microeconomics, supply and demand is an economic model of price determination in a market. It postulates that, holding all else equal, in a competitive market, the unit price for a particular good, or other traded item such as labor or liquid financial assets, will vary until it settles at a point where the quantity demanded (at the current price) will equal the quantity supplied (at the current price), resulting in an economic equilibrium for price and quantity transacted.

Effective demand

In economics, effective demand (ED) in a market is the demand for a product or service which occurs when purchasers are constrained in a different market. It contrasts with notional demand, which is the demand that occurs when purchasers are not constrained in any other market. In the aggregated market for goods in general, demand, notional or effective, is referred to as aggregate demand. The concept of effective supply parallels the concept of effective demand.

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