Lecture

Forecasting Electric Car Market Shares

Graph Chat

Chat with Graph Search

Ask any question about EPFL courses, lectures, exercises, research, news, etc. or try the example questions below.

DISCLAIMER: The Graph Chatbot is not programmed to provide explicit or categorical answers to your questions. Rather, it transforms your questions into API requests that are distributed across the various IT services officially administered by EPFL. Its purpose is solely to collect and recommend relevant references to content that you can explore to help you answer your questions.

Description

This lecture covers the process of forecasting future market shares of electric cars using a model that predicts market penetration based on age categories. By making behavioral assumptions and estimating parameters, the instructor demonstrates how to calculate current and future market shares, assuming a stable causal relationship between age and electric car ownership. Through a simplistic example, the lecture illustrates the essential modeling choices needed for practical applications, paving the way for more complex analyses on realistic data and models.

In MOOC

Introduction to Discrete Choice Models

Human behavior is complex, and unpredictable. Or is it? Predicting the behavior using mathematical models is the topic of this course. More specifically, we focus on choice modeling, in order to obtain disaggregate demand models. Focusing on the logit model, the course covers in details the specification of the model, the estimation of its parameters, the validation and the application. Exercises using the software Biogeme are also proposed. Concrete case studies with real data sets are provided.

Official source

Related concepts (14)

Rational choice theory

Rational choice theory refers to a set of guidelines that help understand economic and social behaviour. The theory originated in the eighteenth century and can be traced back to political economist and philosopher, Adam Smith. The theory postulates that an individual will perform a cost-benefit analysis to determine whether an option is right for them. It also suggests that an individual's self-driven rational actions will help better the overall economy. Rational choice theory looks at three concepts: rational actors, self interest and the invisible hand.

Choice

A choice is the range of different things from which a being can choose. The arrival at a choice may incorporate motivators and models. For example, a traveler might choose a route for a journey based on the preference of arriving at a given destination at a specified time. The preferred (and therefore chosen) route can then account for information such as the length of each of the possible routes, the amount of fuel in the vehicle, traffic conditions, etc.

Public choice

Public choice, or public choice theory, is "the use of economic tools to deal with traditional problems of political science". Its content includes the study of political behavior. In political science, it is the subset of positive political theory that studies self-interested agents (voters, politicians, bureaucrats) and their interactions, which can be represented in a number of ways – using (for example) standard constrained utility maximization, game theory, or decision theory.

Behavioral economics

Behavioral economics studies the effects of psychological, cognitive, emotional, cultural and social factors in the decisions of individuals or institutions, and how these decisions deviate from those implied by classical economic theory. Behavioral economics is primarily concerned with the bounds of rationality of economic agents. Behavioral models typically integrate insights from psychology, neuroscience and microeconomic theory. The study of behavioral economics includes how market decisions are made and the mechanisms that drive public opinion.

Market capitalization

Market capitalization, sometimes referred to as market cap, is the total value of a publicly traded company's outstanding common shares owned by stockholders. Market capitalization is equal to the market price per common share multiplied by the number of common shares outstanding. Since outstanding stock is bought and sold in public markets, capitalization could be used as an indicator of public opinion of a company's net worth and is a determining factor in some forms of stock valuation.

Related lectures (46)

Forecasting Market Shares

Demonstrates forecasting future market shares of electric cars based on demographic changes.

Choice Modeling MOOC: Introduction to Discrete Choice Models

Explores how choice modeling predicts human behavior and quantifies preferences in various scenarios.

Microsimulation: Aggregation MOOC: Introduction to Discrete Choice Models

Covers microsimulation and aggregation techniques to obtain market shares.

Forecast and Demand Analysis

Explores models for prediction, collaborative Sales and Operations Planning, supply chain management, and inventory optimization.

Red bus/Blue bus paradox