Lecture

Stochastic Simulation: Uncertainty Quantification

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In course

MATH-414: Stochastic simulation

The student who follows this course will get acquainted with computational tools used to analyze systems with uncertainty arising in engineering, physics, chemistry, and economics. Focus will be on sampling methods as Monte Carlo, quasi Monte Carlo, Mark ...

Description

This lecture covers the mathematical and algorithmic aspects of uncertainty quantification, focusing on Quasi Monte Carlo methods, crude Monte Carlo, and discrepancy measures. It explains how to approximate integrals using equal weight cubature formulas and discusses applications in estimating volumes and discrepancy functions.

Instructor

Fabio Nobile

Teaching & PhD PhD Students Veronica Montanaro, Matteo Raviola, Francesca Bettinelli, Eliott Van Dieren, Riccardo Saporiti, Giacomo Mossinelli, Noé Stauffer, Fabio Zoccolan Past EPFL PhD Students Diane Sylvie Guignard, Francesco Tesei, Eleonora Musharbash, Matthieu Claude Martin, Davide Pradovera, Sundar Subramaniam Ganesh, Eva Vidlicková, Juan Pablo Madrigal Cianci, Andrea Zanoni, Thomas Simon Spencer Trigo Trindade Past EPFL PhD Students as codirector Michele Pisaroni Courses Advanced analysis II - ve

Official source

Related concepts (32)

Low-discrepancy sequence

In mathematics, a low-discrepancy sequence is a sequence with the property that for all values of N, its subsequence x1, ..., xN has a low discrepancy. Roughly speaking, the discrepancy of a sequence is low if the proportion of points in the sequence falling into an arbitrary set B is close to proportional to the measure of B, as would happen on average (but not for particular samples) in the case of an equidistributed sequence. Specific definitions of discrepancy differ regarding the choice of B (hyperspheres, hypercubes, etc.

Mathematical psychology

Mathematical psychology is an approach to psychological research that is based on mathematical modeling of perceptual, thought, cognitive and motor processes, and on the establishment of law-like rules that relate quantifiable stimulus characteristics with quantifiable behavior (in practice often constituted by task performance). The mathematical approach is used with the goal of deriving hypotheses that are more exact and thus yield stricter empirical validations.

Markov chain Monte Carlo

In statistics, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprise a class of algorithms for sampling from a probability distribution. By constructing a Markov chain that has the desired distribution as its equilibrium distribution, one can obtain a sample of the desired distribution by recording states from the chain. The more steps that are included, the more closely the distribution of the sample matches the actual desired distribution. Various algorithms exist for constructing chains, including the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm.

Stochastic

Stochastic (stəˈkæstɪk; ) refers to the property of being well described by a random probability distribution. Although stochasticity and randomness are distinct in that the former refers to a modeling approach and the latter refers to phenomena themselves, these two terms are often used synonymously. Furthermore, in probability theory, the formal concept of a stochastic process is also referred to as a random process.

Uncertainty quantification

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the science of quantitative characterization and estimation of uncertainties in both computational and real world applications. It tries to determine how likely certain outcomes are if some aspects of the system are not exactly known. An example would be to predict the acceleration of a human body in a head-on crash with another car: even if the speed was exactly known, small differences in the manufacturing of individual cars, how tightly every bolt has been tightened, etc.

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