Lecture

Financial Market Trends

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Description

This lecture discusses the impact of different economic scenarios on financial markets, such as the possibility of a soft or hard landing and the indicators pointing towards a potential recession. It also covers the reliability of economic risk models, the growth outlook for various regions, and the reasons behind the likelihood of a recession. Additionally, it explores the importance of pre-validation services in cross-border payments and the role of Legal Entity Identifiers (LEIs) in enhancing transparency and efficiency in financial transactions.

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Related concepts (32)

Financial risk modeling

Financial risk modeling is the use of formal mathematical and econometric techniques to measure, monitor and control the market risk, credit risk, and operational risk on a firm's balance sheet, on a bank's trading book, or re a fund manager's portfolio value; see Financial risk management. Risk modeling is one of many subtasks within the broader area of financial modeling. Risk modeling uses a variety of techniques including market risk, value at risk (VaR), historical simulation (HS), or extreme value theory (EVT) in order to analyze a portfolio and make forecasts of the likely losses that would be incurred for a variety of risks.

Financial risk

Financial risk is any of various types of risk associated with financing, including financial transactions that include company loans in risk of default. Often it is understood to include only downside risk, meaning the potential for financial loss and uncertainty about its extent. A science has evolved around managing market and financial risk under the general title of modern portfolio theory initiated by Harry Markowitz in 1952 with his article, "Portfolio Selection".

Economic growth

Economic growth can be defined as the increase or improvement in the inflation-adjusted market value of the goods and services produced by an economy in a financial year. Statisticians conventionally measure such growth as the percent rate of increase in the real and nominal gross domestic product (GDP). Growth is usually calculated in real terms – i.e., inflation-adjusted terms – to eliminate the distorting effect of inflation on the prices of goods produced. Measurement of economic growth uses national income accounting.

Risk

In simple terms, risk is the possibility of something bad happening. Risk involves uncertainty about the effects/implications of an activity with respect to something that humans value (such as health, well-being, wealth, property or the environment), often focusing on negative, undesirable consequences. Many different definitions have been proposed. The international standard definition of risk for common understanding in different applications is "effect of uncertainty on objectives".

Recession

In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction that occurs when there is a general decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse demand shock). This may be triggered by various events, such as a financial crisis, an external trade shock, an adverse supply shock, the bursting of an economic bubble, or a large-scale anthropogenic or natural disaster (e.g. a pandemic).

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