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Concept

Probability of default

Related publications (23)

A contagion process with self-exciting jumps in credit risk applications

Puneet Pasricha

The modeling of the probability of joint default or total number of defaults among the firms is one of the crucial problems to mitigate the credit risk since the default correlations significantly affect the portfolio loss distribution and hence play a sig ...

TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD2022

Financial Risk Management with Machine Learning

Marc-Aurèle Antoine Divernois

This thesis consists of three applications of machine learning techniques to risk management. The first chapter proposes a deep learning approach to estimate physical forward default intensities of companies. Default probabilities are computed using artifi ...

EPFL2022

Essays in Banking and Financial Regulation

Susanne Johanna Petronella Léonie Vissers

This thesis examines how banks choose their optimal capital structure and cash reserves in the presence of regulatory measures. The first chapter, titled Bank Capital Structure and Tail Risk, presents a bank capital structure model in which bank assets ...

EPFL2021

COVID-19: data-driven dynamic asset allocation in times of pandemic

Anna Timonina-Farkas

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the importance and value of multi-period asset allocation strategies responding to rapid changes in market behavior. In this article, we formulate and solve a multi-stage stochastic optimization problem, choosing the ...

AMER INST MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES-AIMS2021

Short-term debt and incentives for risk-taking

Erwan Morellec, Francesca Maria Zucchi

We challenge the view that short-term debt curbs moral hazard and demonstrate that, in a world with financing frictions and fair debt pricing, short-term debt generates incentives for risk-taking. To do so, we develop a model in which firms are financed wi ...

ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA2020

Linear credit risk models

Damir Filipovic, Damien Edouard Ackerer

We introduce a novel class of credit risk models in which the drift of the survival process of a firm is a linear function of the factors. The prices of defaultable bonds and credit default swaps (CDS) are linear-rational in the factors. The price of a CDS ...

2020

The sources of sovereign risk: a calibration based on Levy stochastic processes

Sylvain Jean Pascal Carré

Governments choose to issue risky or riskless debt depending on the nature of the stochastic process of output. We use Brownian motion and Poisson shocks a modeling method in the literature on corporate default known as Levy processes to approximate a deco ...

ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV2019

The CDS-bond basis

Pierre Collin-Dufresne

We investigate the cross-sectional variation in the credit default swap (CDS)-bond bases and test explanations for the violation of the arbitrage relation between cash bond and CDS contract, which states that the basis should be zero in normal conditions. ...

WILEY2019

Three Essays in Banking and Finance

Damien Olivier Klossner

This thesis develops three models that study the motivation of various agents to take on debt, and the impact that excessive financial leverage can have on social welfare. In the chapter "Short-term Bank Leverage and the Value of Liquid Reserves", the ince ...

EPFL2019

Polynomial models in finance

Damien Edouard Ackerer

This thesis presents new flexible dynamic stochastic models for the evolution of market prices and new methods for the valuation of derivatives. These models and methods build on the recently characterized class of polynomial jump-diffusion processes for w ...

EPFL2017

Debt enforcement, investment, and risk taking across countries

Erwan Morellec, Philip Valta

We argue that the prospect of an imperfect enforcement of debt contracts in default reduces shareholder-debtholder conflicts and induces leveraged firms to invest more and take on less risk as they approach financial distress. To test these predictions, we ...

2017

Essays on the Market Structure and Pricing of Credit Derivatives

Jan Benjamin Junge

This thesis analyzes the interrelation between market structure and price formation in credit derivatives markets. Traditionally, credit derivatives are traded in relatively opaque over-the-counter markets in which trading is segmented and subject to many ...

EPFL2016

Default And Systemic Risk In Equilibrium

Martin Larsson

We develop a finite horizon continuous time market model, where risk-averse investors maximize utility from terminal wealth by dynamically investing in a risk-free money market account, a stock, and a defaultable bond, whose prices are determined via equil ...

Wiley-Blackwell2015

Credit market frictions and capital structure dynamics

Semyon Malamud, Erwan Morellec, Julien Hugonnier

We study the implications of credit market frictions for the dynamics of corporate capital structure and the risk of default of corporations. To do so, we develop a dynamic capital structure model in which firms face uncertainty regarding their ability to ...

2015

Essays in Empirical Corporate Finance

Stefano Colonnello

This dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter examines whether the availability of credit default swaps (CDS) has consequences for creditor governance. CDSs offer creditors the opportunity to hedge credit risk and may impact their willing ...

EPFL2015

Investment timing, debt structure, and financing constraints

We introduce debt issuance limit constraints along with market debt and bank debt to consider how financial frictions affect investment, financing, and debt structure strategies. Our model provides four important results. First, a firm is more likely to is ...

Elsevier Science Bv2015

The effects of business cycle and debt maturity on a firm's investment and default decisions

We propose a model that jointly determines the capital structure and investment decisions taking business cycle and debt maturity into account. It endogenously determines the triggers of investment/disinvestment and default, which depend on the state of th ...

Elsevier Science Bv2015

Essays in Dynamic Corporate Finance

Francesca Maria Zucchi

This thesis examines the effects of financing frictions on corporate decisions using dynamic models. Accounting for financing frictions helps reconcile a number of regularities that are hard to explain within the Modigliani-Miller framework. For instance, ...

EPFL2015

Modeling Credit Contagion via the Updating of Fragile Beliefs

Pierre Collin-Dufresne

We propose an equilibrium model for defaultable bonds that are subject to contagion risk. Contagion arises because agents with "fragile beliefs" are uncertain about the underlying economic state and its probability. Estimation on sovereign European credit ...

Oxford Univ Press Inc2015

The term structure of interbank risk

Damir Filipovic

We infer a term structure of interbank risk from spreads between rates on interest rate swaps indexed to the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and overnight indexed swaps. We develop a tractable model of interbank risk to decompose the term structure i ...

Elsevier2013

Related publications (23)