Publication

Modeling Credit Contagion Via the Updating of Fragile Beliefs

2011
Working Papers

Abstract

We propose a tractable equilibrium model for pricing defaultable bonds that are subject to contagion risk. Contagion arises because agents with 'fragile beliefs' are uncertain about both the underlying state of the economy and the posterior probabilities associated with these states. As such, agents adopt a robust decision rule for updating that leads them to over-weight the posterior probabilities of 'bad' states. We estimate the model using panel data on sovereign Euro-zone CDS spreads during the recent crisis, and find that it captures levels and dynamics of spreads better than traditional affine models with the same number of observable and latent state variables.

Official source

https://infoscience.epfl.ch/entities/publication/76e61aca-5f77-4f8c-8f5b-5556578d8a09

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2011
Working Papers

Abstract

Official source

https://infoscience.epfl.ch/entities/publication/76e61aca-5f77-4f8c-8f5b-5556578d8a09

About this result

Related concepts (32)

Financial contagion

Financial contagion refers to "the spread of market disturbances - mostly on the downside - from one country to the other, a process observed through co-movements in exchange rates, stock prices, sovereign spreads, and capital flows". Financial contagion can be a potential risk for countries who are trying to integrate their financial system with international financial markets and institutions. It helps explain an economic crisis extending across neighboring countries, or even regions.

Financial crisis

A financial crisis is any of a broad variety of situations in which some financial assets suddenly lose a large part of their nominal value. In the 19th and early 20th centuries, many financial crises were associated with banking panics, and many recessions coincided with these panics. Other situations that are often called financial crises include stock market crashes and the bursting of other financial bubbles, currency crises, and sovereign defaults.

Lender of last resort

In public finance, a lender of last resort (LOLR) is the institution in a financial system that acts as the provider of liquidity to a financial institution which finds itself unable to obtain sufficient liquidity in the interbank lending market when other facilities or such sources have been exhausted. It is, in effect, a government guarantee to provide liquidity to financial institutions. Since the beginning of the 20th century, most central banks have been providers of lender of last resort facilities, and their functions usually also include ensuring liquidity in the financial market in general.

Related publications (7)

Modeling Credit Contagion Via the Updating of Fragile Beliefs

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