Publications associées à Quantifying hydrological modeling errors through a mixture of normal distributions

Publications associées (33)

Extensions of Peer Prediction Incentive Mechanisms

As large, data-driven artificial intelligence models become ubiquitous, guaranteeing high data quality is imperative for constructing models. Crowdsourcing, community sensing, and data filtering have long been the standard approaches to guaranteeing or imp ...

EPFL2024

Spectral Estimators for High-Dimensional Matrix Inference

Farzad Pourkamali

A key challenge across many disciplines is to extract meaningful information from data which is often obscured by noise. These datasets are typically represented as large matrices. Given the current trend of ever-increasing data volumes, with datasets grow ...

EPFL2024

TIC-TAC: A Framework for Improved Covariance Estimation in Deep Heteroscedastic Regression

Mathieu Salzmann, Alexandre Massoud Alahi, Megh Hiren Shukla

Deep heteroscedastic regression involves jointly optimizing the mean and covariance of the predicted distribution using the negative log-likelihood. However, recent works show that this may result in sub-optimal convergence due to the challenges associated ...

2024

ZigZag: Universal Sampling-free Uncertainty Estimation Through Two-Step Inference

Minh Hieu Lê, Nikita Durasov

Whereas the ability of deep networks to produce useful predictions on many kinds of data has been amply demonstrated, estimating the reliability of these predictions remains challenging. Sampling approaches such as MC-Dropout and Deep Ensembles have emerge ...

2024

Design of an Open-Loop Pile-Oscillation Program in the CROCUS Reactor

Andreas Pautz, Vincent Pierre Lamirand, Axel Guy Marie Laureau, Thomas Jean-François Ligonnet

As a follow-up to the CEA-EPFL PETALE experimental program on stainless steel nuclear data, the EPFL initiated an open-loop pile-oscillation experimental program in the CROCUS reactor: BLOOM. A reproduction of the critical experiments of PETALE, the progra ...

2024

Influence of model uncertainty and long term deformations in action effects calculation in reinforced concrete structures

Xhemsi Malja

Most codes of practice adopt a semi probabilistic design approach for the dimensioning and assessment of structures. Accordingly, structural safety is ensured by performing limit state verifications using design values determined with adequately calibrated ...

EPFL2024

Generalized Bradley-Terry Models for Score Estimation from Paired Comparisons

Julien René Fageot, Le Nguyen Hoang, Sadegh Farhadkhani, Oscar Jean Olivier Villemaud

Many applications, e.g. in content recommendation, sports, or recruitment, leverage the comparisons of alternatives to score those alternatives. The classical Bradley-Terry model and its variants have been widely used to do so. The historical model conside ...

AAAI Press2024

A FEM modelling workflow to simulate THM effects in the rock around nuclear waste packages

Matthias Timothee Stanislas Wojnarowicz

High-level waste, stemming from nuclear electricity generation poses significant environmental and safety concerns. Currently, high-level wastes are stored in interim facilities needing constant monitoring and waiting for a definitive solution. Deep geolog ...

EPFL2024

Quantifying the Unknown: Data-Driven Approaches and Applications in Energy Systems

Paul Scharnhorst

In light of the challenges posed by climate change and the goals of the Paris Agreement, electricity generation is shifting to a more renewable and decentralized pattern, while the operation of systems like buildings is increasingly electrified. This calls ...

EPFL2024

Statistical Inference for Inverse Problems: From Sparsity-Based Methods to Neural Networks

Pakshal Narendra Bohra

In inverse problems, the task is to reconstruct an unknown signal from its possibly noise-corrupted measurements. Penalized-likelihood-based estimation and Bayesian estimation are two powerful statistical paradigms for the resolution of such problems. They ...

EPFL2024

Federated learning with uncertainty-based client clustering for fleet-wide fault diagnosis

Olga Fink, Hao Lu

Operators from various industries have been pushing the adoption of wireless sensing nodes for industrial monitoring, and such efforts have produced sizeable condition monitoring datasets that can be used to build diagnosis algorithms capable of warning ma ...

2024

Toward Reliable Human Pose Forecasting With Uncertainty

Alexandre Massoud Alahi, Saeed Saadatnejad, Taylor Ferdinand Mordan

Recently, there has been an arms race of pose forecasting methods aimed at solving the spatio-temporal task of predicting a sequence of future 3D poses of a person given a sequence of past observed ones. However, the lack of unified benchmarks and limited ...

2024

Valence can control the nonexponential viscoelastic relaxation of multivalent reversible gels

Hugo Camille Valentin Le Roy

Gels made of telechelic polymers connected by reversible cross-linkers are a versatile design platform for biocompatible viscoelastic materials. Their linear response to a step strain displays a fast, near-exponential relaxation when using low-valence cros ...

Amer Assoc Advancement Science2024

Reducing uncertainties in response predictions of earthquake-damaged masonry buildings using data from image-based inspection

Ian Smith, Katrin Beyer, Bryan German Pantoja Rosero, Mathias Christian Haindl Carvallo

Image information about the state of a building after an earthquake, which can be collected without endangering the post-earthquake reconnaissance activities, can be used to reduce uncertainties in response predictions for future seismic events. This paper ...

Springer2024

Primary and secondary order parameters in the fully frustrated transverse-field Ising model on the square lattice

Frédéric Mila

Using quantum Monte Carlo simulations and field-theory arguments, we study the fully frustrated transversefield Ising model on the square lattice for the purpose of quantitatively relating two different order parameters to each other. We consider a "primar ...

Amer Physical Soc2024

Model uncertainties in action effects and load bearing capacity calculation in statically indeterminate reinforced concrete structures

Aurelio Muttoni, Alain Nussbaumer, Xhemsi Malja

For the dimensioning and assessment of structures, it is common practice to compare action effects with sectional resistances. Extensive studies have been performed to quantify the model uncertainty on the resistance side. However, for statically indetermi ...

Ernst & Sohn2024

Graph generative deep learning models with an application to circuit topologies

Igor Krawczuk

Modern integrated circuits are tiny yet incredibly complex technological artifacts, composed of millions and billions of individual structures working in unison. Managing their complexity and facilitating their design drove part of the co-evolution of mode ...

EPFL2024

Seebeck Coefficient of Ionic Conductors from Bayesian Regression Analysis

Paolo Pegolo

We propose a novel approach to evaluating the ionic Seebeck coefficient in electrolytes from relatively short equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations, based on the Green-Kubo theory of linear response and Bayesian regression analysis. By exploiting the ...

Amer Chemical Soc2024

Gibbs sampling the posterior of neural networks

Lenka Zdeborová, Emanuele Troiani, Giovanni Piccioli

In this paper, we study sampling from a posterior derived from a neural network. We propose a new probabilistic model consisting of adding noise at every pre- and post-activation in the network, arguing that the resulting posterior can be sampled using an ...

Iop Publishing Ltd2024

Exploiting the Signal-Leak Bias in Diffusion Models

Athanasios Fitsios, Sabine Süsstrunk, Radhakrishna Achanta, Mahmut Sami Arpa, Martin Nicolas Everaert

There is a bias in the inference pipeline of most diffusion models. This bias arises from a signal leak whose distribution deviates from the noise distribution, creating a discrepancy between training and inference processes. We demonstrate that this signa ...

2024