Thermal characterisation of residential building dynamics for demand response using minimal monitoring data

With the increasing deployment of decentralised and variable energy sources such as wind and solar, and the electrification of the heating and transport sectors, demand side management strategies and demand response (DR) measures are becoming more important. One such measure is the use of building thermal mass for load shifting, which provides flexibility in heat and electricity supply in sector-coupled systems. Using this flexibility requires knowledge of the thermal properties and dynamics of buildings. Although many methods exist to estimate thermal properties, most rely on controlled conditions, test buildings, or complex monitoring setups. Studies on occupied buildings often omit heating terminal temperatures and instead apply statistical identification using large data sets or intensive computation. Here, a method is proposed to estimate the heat loss coefficient and building thermal capacity by directly incorporating heating circuit temperatures alongside room temperature. The method employs a steady-state procedure for losses estimation and analyses zero-input behaviour of temperatures to estimate the thermal capacity. It is demonstrated on five real-world pilot sites. The results are compared to values reported in the literature, showing sufficient agreement. Due to its simplicity, the method supports thermal parametrisation of building stocks using minimal monitoring data and improves thermal building dynamics model accuracy. The resulting parameters directly inform DR applications by providing an estimation of thermal time constants and the associated load-shifting potential of buildings.