Energy Security: a robust optimization approach to design a robust European energy supply via TIAM-WORLD

Energy supply routes to a given region are subject to random events, resulting in partial or total closure of a route (corridor). For instance: a pipeline may be subject to technical problems that reduce its capacity. Or, oil supply by tanker may be reduced for political reasons or because of equipment mishaps at the point of origin, or again by a conscious decision by the supplier in order to obtain economic benefits. The purpose of this article is to formulate a simplified version the above issue that addresses mainly long term uncertainties. The formulation is done via a version of the TIAM-WORLD Integrated Model, modified to implement the approach of Robust Optimization. In our case, the approach can be interpreted as a revival of Chance Constrained Programming under the name of Distributionally Robust, or Ambiguous, Chance Constrained Programming. We apply the approach to improving the security of supply to the European Energy system. The resulting formulation provides several interesting features regarding the security of EU energy supply and has also the advantage to be numerically tractable.