Publications associées à Evaluating federal policies using Bayesian time series models: estimating the causal impact of the hospital readmissions reduction program

Publications associées (9)

Bayes-optimal learning of deep random networks of extensive-width*

Lenka Zdeborová, Florent Gérard Krzakala, Hugo Chao Cui

We consider the problem of learning a target function corresponding to a deep, extensive-width, non-linear neural network with random Gaussian weights. We consider the asymptotic limit where the number of samples, the input dimension and the network width ...

IOP Publishing Ltd2025

From Preprocessing to Evaluation: The Role of External Knowledge in Advancing Language Models and Machine Translation

Georgios Vernikos

Machine translation (MT) systems and language models (LMs) have demonstrated impressive performance in recent years, driven by advances in architecture, algorithms, and the scaling of parameters and training data. Despite the ability of these models to int ...

EPFL2025

We Need Subject Matter Expertise to Choose and Identify Causal Estimands: Comment on "Estimands for Recurrent Event Endpoints in the Presence of a Terminal Event"

Mats Julius Stensrud, Matias Janvin

We summarize what we consider to be the two main limitations of the "Estimands for Recurrent Event Endpoints in the Presence of a Terminal Event" (Schmidli et al. 2022). First, the authors did not give detailed guidance on how to choose an appropriate esti ...

TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC2023

Glacier loss and vegetation expansion alter organic and inorganic carbon dynamics in high-mountain streams

Tom Ian Battin, Nicola Deluigi, Andrew Lean Robison, Camille Aude Rolland

High-mountain ecosystems are experiencing the acute effects of climate change, most visibly through glacier recession and the greening of theterrestrial environment. The streams draining these landscapes are affected by these shifts, integrating hydrologic ...

COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH2023

Planted XY model: Thermodynamics and inference

Lenka Zdeborová, Guanhao Huang, Siyu Chen, Giovanni Piccioli

In this paper we study a fully connected planted spin glass named the planted XY model. Motivation for studying this system comes both from the spin glass field and the one of statistical inference where it models the angular synchronization problem. We de ...

2022

Financial Risk Management with Machine Learning

Marc-Aurèle Antoine Divernois

This thesis consists of three applications of machine learning techniques to risk management. The first chapter proposes a deep learning approach to estimate physical forward default intensities of companies. Default probabilities are computed using artifi ...

EPFL2022

No correlations between visual illusion strength

Michael Herzog, Aaron Michael Clarke, Lukasz Grzeczkowski

In cognition, audition and somatosensation, performance correlates strongly between different tasks suggesting the existence of common factors. Surprisingly, this does not hold true for vision. For example, Vernier acuity and Gabor detection correlate very ...

2015

Accurate Directional Inference for Vector Parameters in Linear Exponential Families

Anthony Christopher Davison

We consider inference on a vector-valued parameter of interest in a linear exponential family, in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. Based on higher-order asymptotic theory for likelihood, we propose a directional test whose p-value i ...

American Statistical Association2014

Wavelet Shrinkage With Consistent Cycle Spinning Generalizes Total Variation Denoising

Michaël Unser, Emrah Bostan, Ulugbek Kamilov

We introduce a new wavelet-based method for the implementation of Total-Variation-type denoising. The data term is least-squares, while the regularization term is gradient-based. The particularity of our method is to exploit a link between the discrete gra ...

IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers2012