Publications associées à Stochastic dynamics of cholera epidemics

Spatially explicit effective reproduction numbers from incidence and mobility data

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto, Damiano Pasetto, Cristiano Trevisin

Current methods for near real-time estimation of effective reproduction numbers from surveillance data overlook mobility fluxes of infectors and susceptible individuals within a spatially connected network (the metapopulation). Exchanges of infections amon ...

2023

Functional data analysis with rough sample paths?

Victor Panaretos, Neda Mohammadi Jouzdani

Functional data are typically modeled as sample paths of smooth stochastic processes in order to mitigate the fact that they are often observed discretely and noisily, occasionally irregularly and sparsely. The smoothness assumption is imposed to allow for ...

TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD2024

The elliptical Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process

Sofia Charlotta Olhede

We introduce the elliptical Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, which is a generalisation of the well-known univariate OU process to bivariate time series. This process maps out elliptical stochastic oscillations over time in the complex plane, which are obse ...

INT PRESS BOSTON, INC2023

Epidemicity of cholera spread and the fate of infection control measures

Andrea Rinaldo, Lorenzo Mari, Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre, Marino Gatto, Damiano Pasetto, Cristiano Trevisin

The fate of ongoing infectious disease outbreaks is predicted through reproduction numbers, defining the long-term establishment of the infection, and epidemicity indices, tackling the reactivity of the infectious pool to new contagions. Prognostic metrics ...

2022

Optimizing the mitigation of epidemic spreading through targeted adoption of contact tracing apps

Andrea Santoro

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is the first epidemic in human history in which digital contact tracing has been deployed at a global scale. Tracking and quarantining all the contacts of individuals who test positive for a virus can help slow down an epidemi ...

AMER PHYSICAL SOC2022

Wind-Topo_Model

Michael Lehning, Jérôme François Sylvain Dujardin

Model and Data: Dujardin, J.; Lehning, M. Wind-Topo_model. EnviDat 2022 ...

Zenodo2022

Modeling infectious disease dynamics towards informed public health interventions, with applications on COVID-19 and cholera

Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre

Emerging and existing infectious diseases pose a constant threat to individuals and communities across the world. In many cases, the burden of these diseases is preventable through public health interventions. However, taking the right decisions and design ...

EPFL2021

A Modular Workflow for Model Building, Analysis, and Parameter Estimation in Systems Biology and Neuroscience

Daniel Keller, Andrii Stepaniuk

Neuroscience incorporates knowledge from a range of scales, from single molecules to brain wide neural networks. Modeling is a valuable tool in understanding processes at a single scale or the interactions between two adjacent scales and researchers use a ...

HUMANA PRESS INC2022

Epidemic mitigation by statistical inference from contact tracing data

Maria Refinetti, Giovanni Catania, Florent Gérard Krzakala, Lenka Zdeborová, Indaco Biazzo

Contact tracing is an essential tool to mitigate the impact of a pandemic, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of attention has been ...

National Academy of Sciences2021

Flocking-enhanced social contagion

Ignacio Pagonabarraga Mora

Populations of mobile agents-animal groups, robot swarms, or crowds of people-self-organize into a large diversity of states as a result of information exchanges with their surroundings. While in many situations of interest the motion of the agents is driv ...

AMER PHYSICAL SOC2020

Rainfall as a driver of epidemic cholera: Comparative model assessments of the effect of intra-seasonal precipitation events

Andrea Rinaldo, Francisco Javier Perez Saez, Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre, Carla Sciarra, Damiano Pasetto

The correlation between cholera epidemics and climatic drivers, in particular seasonal tropical rainfall, has been studied in a variety of contexts owing to its documented relevance. Several mechanistic models of cholera transmission have included rainfall ...

2019

The sources of sovereign risk: a calibration based on Levy stochastic processes

Sylvain Jean Pascal Carré, Daniel Cohen

Governments choose to issue risky or riskless debt depending on the nature of the stochastic process of output. We use Brownian motion and Poisson shocks a modeling method in the literature on corporate default known as Levy processes to approximate a deco ...

ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV2019

Machine learning for fast and reliable solution of time-dependent differential equations

Alfio Quarteroni, Francesco Regazzoni

We propose a data-driven Model Order Reduction (MOR) technique, based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), applicable to dynamical systems arising from Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) or time-dependent Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). Unlike ...

2019

Risk Perception and Epidemics in Complex Computer Networks

Emanuele Massaro

We present a self-organised method for quickly obtaining the epidemic threshold of infective processes on networks. Starting from simple percolation models, we introduce the possibility that the effective infection probability is affected by the perception ...

IEEE2018

The potential impact of case-area targeted interventions in response to cholera outbreaks: A modeling study

Flavio Finger, Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo

Background Cholera prevention and control interventions targeted to neighbors of cholera cases (case-area targeted interventions [CATIs]), including improved water, sanitation, and hygiene, oral cholera vaccine (OCV), and prophylactic antibiotics, may be a ...

2018

Three- or Two-Stage Stochastic Market-Clearing Algorithm?

Sidi-Rachid Cherkaoui, Farzaneh Abbaspourtorbati, Antonio J. Conejo

As the power industry considers moving from a deterministic paradigm to a stochastic one to clear the day-ahead market in systems with significant stochastic production, the following question arises: how should a stochastic clearing algorithm be formulate ...

IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers2017

Spatially explicit modeling of cholera epidemics

Flavio Finger

Understanding the epidemiology of cholera, when and where it occurs and how it spreads, is key to its prevention and control. Models can help to apprehend cholera outbreaks by providing insight into critical epidemiological processes, and may be used to ev ...

EPFL2017

Integrated field, laboratory, and theoretical study of PKD spread in a Swiss prealpine river

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto, Luca Carraro

Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) is a major threat to wild and farmed salmonid populations because of its lethal effect at high water temperatures. Its causative agent, the myxozoan Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, has a complex lifecycle exploiting freshw ...

National Academy of Sciences2017

On the Besov regularity of periodic Levy noises

Michaël Unser, John Paul Ward, Julien René Pierre Fageot

In this paper, we study the Besov regularity of Levy white noises on the d-dimensional torus. Due to their rough sample paths, the white noises that we consider are defined as generalized stochastic fields. We, initially, obtain regularity results for gene ...

Academic Press Inc Elsevier Science2017

An overview of a new sensor calibration platform

Jan Skaloud, Stéphane Guerrier, Philipp Clausen

Inertial sensors are increasingly being employed in different types of applications. The reduced cost and the extremely small size makes them the number-one-choice in miniature embedded devices like phones, watches, and small unmanned aerial vehicles. The ...

2017