Publications associées à Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification of Physical Models in Thermal-Hydraulics System Codes

Spectral Estimators for High-Dimensional Matrix Inference

A key challenge across many disciplines is to extract meaningful information from data which is often obscured by noise. These datasets are typically represented as large matrices. Given the current trend of ever-increasing data volumes, with datasets grow ...

EPFL2024

ZigZag: Universal Sampling-free Uncertainty Estimation Through Two-Step Inference

Nikita Durasov, Nik Joel Dorndorf, Minh Hieu Lê

Whereas the ability of deep networks to produce useful predictions on many kinds of data has been amply demonstrated, estimating the reliability of these predictions remains challenging. Sampling approaches such as MC-Dropout and Deep Ensembles have emerge ...

2024

Quantifying the Unknown: Data-Driven Approaches and Applications in Energy Systems

Paul Scharnhorst

In light of the challenges posed by climate change and the goals of the Paris Agreement, electricity generation is shifting to a more renewable and decentralized pattern, while the operation of systems like buildings is increasingly electrified. This calls ...

EPFL2024

Toward Reliable Human Pose Forecasting With Uncertainty

Alexandre Massoud Alahi, Saeed Saadatnejad, Taylor Ferdinand Mordan, Parham Saremi

Recently, there has been an arms race of pose forecasting methods aimed at solving the spatio-temporal task of predicting a sequence of future 3D poses of a person given a sequence of past observed ones. However, the lack of unified benchmarks and limited ...

2024

Reducing uncertainties in response predictions of earthquake-damaged masonry buildings using data from image-based inspection

Ian Smith, Katrin Beyer, Bryan German Pantoja Rosero, Mathias Christian Haindl Carvallo

Image information about the state of a building after an earthquake, which can be collected without endangering the post-earthquake reconnaissance activities, can be used to reduce uncertainties in response predictions for future seismic events. This paper ...

Springer2024

Design of an Open-Loop Pile-Oscillation Program in the CROCUS Reactor

Andreas Pautz, Vincent Pierre Lamirand, Thomas Jean-François Ligonnet, Axel Guy Marie Laureau

As a follow-up to the CEA-EPFL PETALE experimental program on stainless steel nuclear data, the EPFL initiated an open-loop pile-oscillation experimental program in the CROCUS reactor: BLOOM. A reproduction of the critical experiments of PETALE, the progra ...

2024

A FEM modelling workflow to simulate THM effects in the rock around nuclear waste packages

Matthias Timothee Stanislas Wojnarowicz

High-level waste, stemming from nuclear electricity generation poses significant environmental and safety concerns. Currently, high-level wastes are stored in interim facilities needing constant monitoring and waiting for a definitive solution. Deep geolog ...

EPFL2024

Federated learning with uncertainty-based client clustering for fleet-wide fault diagnosis

Hao Lu, Chao Hu, Olga Fink

Operators from various industries have been pushing the adoption of wireless sensing nodes for industrial monitoring, and such efforts have produced sizeable condition monitoring datasets that can be used to build diagnosis algorithms capable of warning ma ...

2024

Hybrid Simulator for Capturing Dynamics of Synthetic Populations

Michel Bierlaire, Marija Kukic

This paper presents a novel hybrid framework for generating and updating a synthetic population. We call it hybrid because it combines model-based and data-driven approaches. Existing generators produce a snapshot of synthetic data that becomes outdated ov ...

IEEE2024

Neutron-Gamma Noise Measurements in a Zero-Power Reactor Using Organic Scintillators

Andreas Pautz, Oskari Ville Pakari, Vincent Pierre Lamirand

Noise measurements in light water reactor systems aid in generating validation data for integral point kinetic parameter predictions and generating monitoring parameters for reactor safety and safeguards. The CROCUS zero-power reactor has been used to supp ...

Ieee-Inst Electrical Electronics Engineers Inc2024

Model uncertainties in action effects and load bearing capacity calculation in statically indeterminate reinforced concrete structures

Alain Nussbaumer, Aurelio Muttoni, Xhemsi Malja

For the dimensioning and assessment of structures, it is common practice to compare action effects with sectional resistances. Extensive studies have been performed to quantify the model uncertainty on the resistance side. However, for statically indetermi ...

Ernst & Sohn2024

Computation of sensitivity coefficients in fixed source simulations with SERPENT2

Andreas Pautz, Mathieu Hursin

Within the scope of the implementation of a nuclear data pipeline aiming at producing the best possible evaluated nuclear data files, a major point is the production of relevant sensitivity coefficients when including integral benchmark information. Thanks ...

Elsevier Science Sa2024

Influence of model uncertainty and long term deformations in action effects calculation in reinforced concrete structures

Xhemsi Malja

Most codes of practice adopt a semi probabilistic design approach for the dimensioning and assessment of structures. Accordingly, structural safety is ensured by performing limit state verifications using design values determined with adequately calibrated ...

EPFL2024

Seismic Testing of Adjacent Interacting Masonry Structures – Analysis of a Blind Prediction

Katrin Beyer, Andrea Penna, Igor Tomic

Masonry aggregates, which emerged as layouts of cities and villages became denser, make up historical centres all over the world. In these aggregates, neighbouring structures may share structural walls that are joined at the interfaces by mortar or interlo ...

Springer2024

Atomic level insight into irradiation effects in nuclear fuel materials

Shaileyee Bhattacharya

Microstructural evolution during in-pile irradiation, radiation damage effects and fission products behavior in UO2 nuclear fuel are key issues in understanding and for the modeling of the performance as well as safety characteristics of nuclear fuels in t ...

EPFL2024

Seebeck Coefficient of Ionic Conductors from Bayesian Regression Analysis

We propose a novel approach to evaluating the ionic Seebeck coefficient in electrolytes from relatively short equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations, based on the Green-Kubo theory of linear response and Bayesian regression analysis. By exploiting the ...

Amer Chemical Soc2024

Nanoindentation hardness and modulus of Al2O3-SiO2-CaO and MnO-SiO2-FeO inclusions in iron

Andreas Mortensen, Léa Deillon, Alejandra Inés Slagter, Eva Luisa Vogt, David Hernandez Escobar, Jonathan Aristya Setyadji

Dataset corresponding to the following manuscript: Slagter, A., Setyadji, J.A., Vogt, E.L. et al. Nanoindentation Hardness and Modulus of Al2O3–SiO2–CaO and MnO–SiO2–FeO Inclusions in Iron. Metall Mater Trans A (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11661-024-0 ...

Zenodo2024

Extensions of Peer Prediction Incentive Mechanisms

Adam Julian Richardson

As large, data-driven artificial intelligence models become ubiquitous, guaranteeing high data quality is imperative for constructing models. Crowdsourcing, community sensing, and data filtering have long been the standard approaches to guaranteeing or imp ...

EPFL2024

Statistical Inference for Inverse Problems: From Sparsity-Based Methods to Neural Networks

Pakshal Narendra Bohra

In inverse problems, the task is to reconstruct an unknown signal from its possibly noise-corrupted measurements. Penalized-likelihood-based estimation and Bayesian estimation are two powerful statistical paradigms for the resolution of such problems. They ...

EPFL2024

Intermediate complexity atmospheric modeling in complex terrain: is it right?

Michael Lehning, Dylan Stewart Reynolds, Michael Haugeneder

Dynamic downscaling of atmospheric forcing data to the hectometer resolution has shown increases in accuracy for landsurface models, but at great computational cost. Here we present a validation of a novel intermediate complexity atmospheric model, HICAR, ...

Frontiers Media Sa2024