Measurement system design for civil infrastructure using expected utility

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On double-descent in uncertainty quantification in overparametrized models

Lenka Zdeborová, Florent Gérard Krzakala, Bruno Loureiro, Lucas Andry Clarte

Uncertainty quantification is a central challenge in reliable and trustworthy machine learning. Naive measures such as last-layer scores are well-known to yield overconfident estimates in the context of overparametrized neural networks. Several methods, ra ...

PMLR Proceedings of Machine Learning Research2023

Euclid preparation XXIV. Calibration of the halo mass function in λ(ν)CDM cosmologies

Maurizio Martinelli, Frédéric Courbin, Georges Meylan, Slobodan Ilic, Gianluca Castignani, Austin Chandler Peel

Euclid's photometric galaxy cluster survey has the potential to be a very competitive cosmological probe. The main cosmological probe with observations of clusters is their number count, within which the halo mass function (HMF) is a key theoretical quanti ...

EDP SCIENCES S A2023

Risk of incorrect choices due to uncertainty in BPS evaluations of conceptual-stage neighbourhood-scale building designs

Marilyne Andersen, Luisa Pastore, Minu Agarwal

At the conceptual stage, building performance simulation (BPS) based evaluations are being increasingly used for tasks such as ranking of competing massing design proposals. However, such conceptual stage evaluations suffer from information deficiency in b ...

2023

Reliability analysis and partial safety format calibration considering the characteristics of the resistance of reinforced concrete structures

Qianhui Yu

Every engineering calculation is an approximation of reality, with inevitable uncertainties involved. This fact implies that a reliability verification accounting for the uncertainties is a necessary step in the design and assessment of structures. Nowaday ...

EPFL2023

Reducing Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty by Combining Models With Satellite and Within-The-Atmosphere Observations: A Three-Way Street

Athanasios Nenes

Aerosol forcing uncertainty represents the largest climate forcing uncertainty overall. Its magnitude has remained virtually undiminished over the past 20 years despite considerable advances in understanding most of the key contributing elements. Recent wo ...

AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION2023

Reliable uncertainties: Error correlation, rotated error bars, and linear regressions in three-isotope plots and beyond

Reto Georg Trappitsch

Correlated errors of experimental data are a common but often neglected problem in physical sciences. Various tools are provided here for thorough propagation of uncertainties in cases of correlated errors. Discussed are techniques especially applicable to ...

ELSEVIER2023

Adaptive Fingers Coordination for Robust Grasp and In-Hand Manipulation Under Disturbances and Unknown Dynamics

Aude Billard, Farshad Khadivar

We present a control framework for achieving a robust object grasp and manipulation in hand. In-hand manipulation remains a demanding task as the object is never stable and task success relies on carefully synchronizing the fingers' dynamics. Indeed, finge ...

IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC2023

Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for engineering design and health prognostics: A tutorial

Olga Fink, Luca Biggio

On top of machine learning (ML) models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and reliability impr ...

2023

Contextual Stochastic Bilevel Optimization

Daniel Kuhn, Andreas Krause, Yifan Hu

We introduce contextual stochastic bilevel optimization (CSBO) -- a stochastic bilevel optimization framework with the lower-level problem minimizing an expectation conditioned on some contextual information and the upper-level decision variable. This fram ...

2023