Measurement system design for civil infrastructure using expected utility

For system identification, most sensor-placement strategies are based on the minimization of the model-parameter uncertainty. However, reducing the uncertainty in remaining-life prognosis of structures is often more relevant. This paper proposes an optimization strategy using utility theory and probabilistic behavior prognoses based on model falsification to support decisions related to monitoring interventions. This approach, illustrated by the full-scale case study of a bridge, allows quantification of the expected utility of measurement systems while also indicating the profitability of monitoring actions. In addition, this approach is able to determine when the expected performance of monitoring configurations is reduced due to over-instrumentation. The use of model falsification for system identification allows for explicit inclusion of engineering heuristics in this knowledge intensive task while also offering robustness to effects of systematic modeling errors that are associated with idealization of complex civil structures.