Publications associées à Modeling infectious disease dynamics towards informed public health interventions, with applications on COVID-19 and cholera

The role of spatial epidemiology to support public health policies : case studies applied to health promotion, noncommunicable and infectious diseases in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland

In a context of escalating public health challenges, including the rise of chronic diseases, the impact of climate change, and the COVID-19 pandemic, certain populations bear a disproportionate burden. As a result, there is an urgent need to develop public ...

EPFL2024

Microfluidic systems for infectious disease diagnostics

Thomas Lehnert, Martinus Gijs

Microorganisms, encompassing both uni- and multicellular entities, exhibit remarkable diversity as omnipresent life forms in nature. They play a pivotal role by supplying essential components for sustaining biological processes across diverse ecosystems, i ...

Royal Soc Chemistry2024

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021

Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre, Pan Xu, Myungjin Kim, Shan Yu, Lei Gao, Weitong Zhang, Wei Cao, Xinyi Li

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and ...

Public Library Science2024

Using Negative Control Populations to Assess Unmeasured Confounding and Direct Effects

Mats Julius Stensrud

Sometimes treatment effects are absent in a subgroup of the population. For example, penicillin has no effect on severe symptoms in individuals infected by resistant Staphylococcus aureus, and codeine has no effect on pain in individuals with certain polym ...

Lippincott Williams & Wilkins2024

Inactivation of influenza A virus in expiratory droplets and aerosol particles and the associated physicochemical drivers

Aline Laetitia Schaub

Influenza is an infectious respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses. Every year, it causes up to one billion cases of disease worldwide. Despite its high disease burden, the transmission pathway of influenza remains subject to debate. There is incre ...

EPFL2024

Epidemicity indices and reproduction numbers from infectious disease data in connected human populations

Andrea Rinaldo, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto, Cristiano Trevisin

We focus on distinctive data-driven measures of the fate of ongoing epidemics. The relevance of our pursuit is suggested by recent results proving that the short-term temporal evolution of infection spread is described by an epidemicity index related to th ...

2024

Reliable data-driven decision-making through optimal transport

Bahar Taskesen

Decision-making permeates every aspect of human and societal development, from individuals' daily choices to the complex decisions made by communities and institutions. Central to effective decision-making is the discipline of optimization, which seeks th ...

EPFL2024

Biases in Information Selection and Processing: Survey Evidence from the Pandemic

Andreas Fuster

We conduct two survey experiments to study which information people choose to consume and how it affects their beliefs. In the first experiment, respondents choose between optimistic and pessimistic article headlines related to the COVID-19 pandemic and ar ...

2024

Monitoring an Emergent Pathogen at Low Incidence in Wastewater Using qPCR: Mpox in Switzerland

Tamar Kohn, Timothy R. Julian

Wastewater-based epidemiology offers a complementary approach to clinical case-based surveillance of emergent diseases and can help identify regions with infected people to prioritize clinical surveillance strategies. However, tracking emergent diseases in ...

2024

A common NFKB1 variant detected through antibody analysis in UK Biobank predicts risk of infection and allergy

Jacques Fellay, Flavia Aurelia Shoko Hodel

Infectious agents contribute significantly to the global burden of diseases through both acute infection and their chronic sequelae. We leveraged the UK Biobank to identify genetic loci that influence humoral immune response to multiple infections. From 45 ...

2024

Stay close, but not too close: aerial image analysis reveals patterns of social distancing in seal colonies

Devis Tuia, Benjamin Alexander Kellenberger

Many species aggregate in dense colonies. Species-specific spatial patterns provide clues about how colonies are shaped by various (a)biotic factors, including predation, temperature regulation or disease transmission. Using aerial imagery, we examined the ...

2023

Spatially explicit effective reproduction numbers from incidence and mobility data

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto, Damiano Pasetto, Cristiano Trevisin

Current methods for near real-time estimation of effective reproduction numbers from surveillance data overlook mobility fluxes of infectors and susceptible individuals within a spatially connected network (the metapopulation). Exchanges of infections amon ...

2023

Optimized numerical solutions of SIRDVW multiage model controlling SARS-CoV-2 vaccine roll out: An application to the Italian scenario

Alfio Quarteroni, Nicola Parolini, Luca Dede'

In the context of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, mathematical modelling has played a funda-mental role for making forecasts, simulating scenarios and evaluating the impact of pre-ventive political, social and pharmaceutical measures. Optimal control theory represent ...

KEAI PUBLISHING LTD2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Nicola Parolini, Ntorina Thanou, David Kraus, Andrea Kraus, Daniel Lopez, Markus Scholz, Benjamin Bejar Haro, Daniel Rodrigo Lopez, Ekaterina Krymova, Tao Sun

Background:Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive p ...

eLIFE SCIENCES PUBL LTD2023

Contextual Stochastic Bilevel Optimization

Daniel Kuhn, Yifan Hu, Andreas Krause, Jie Wang

We introduce contextual stochastic bilevel optimization (CSBO) -- a stochastic bilevel optimization framework with the lower-level problem minimizing an expectation conditioned on some contextual information and the upper-level decision variable. This fram ...

2023

Designing self-tracking experiences: A qualitative study of the perceptions of barriers and facilitators to adopting digital health technology for automatic urine analysis at home

Nicolas Henchoz, Delphine Ribes Lemay, Emily Clare Groves, Andrea Regula Schneider, Margherita Motta

Self-tracking technologies open new doors to previously unimaginable scenarios. The diagnosis of diseases years in advance, or supporting the health of astronauts on missions to Mars are just some of many example applications. During the COVID-19 pandemic, ...

2023

Real world multimodal assessment of physical behavior change in health and disease

Gaëlle Prigent

Sedentary lifestyle is currently considered a global pandemic, associated with major health problems such as cardiovascular disease and premature death. Regular physical activity (PA) is one way to address this problem, as it brings a variety of health ben ...

EPFL2023

Endogenous Energy Efficiency Improvement in Housing and Cement Sectors in Switzerland

Sergey Arzoyan

The reduction of energy consumption in the residential building stock and cement industry is a substantial component of the Swiss Energy Strategy 2050. Therefore, it is vital to identify the potential for EEI in these two sectors. In this study, a new meth ...

EPFL2023

Interventionist estimands in event history analysis

Matias Janvin

The presence of competing events, such as death, makes it challenging to define causal effects on recurrent outcomes. In this thesis, I formalize causal inference for recurrent events, with and without competing events. I define several causal estimands an ...

EPFL2023

Expiratory Aerosol pH is a Driver of the Persistence of Airborne Influenza A Virus

Aline Laetitia Schaub

To mitigate the spread of a viral disease, it is crucial to understand the factors that influence airborne virus transmission. However, the micro-environment to which the virus is exposed in expiratory aerosol particles is highly complex. The relative humi ...

SWISS CHEMICAL SOC2023