Using measurements to reduce model uncertainty for better predictions

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Publications associées (30)

Euclid preparation XXIV. Calibration of the halo mass function in λ(ν)CDM cosmologies

Slobodan Ilic, Georges Meylan, Frédéric Courbin, Fabio Finelli, Maurizio Martinelli, Gianluca Castignani, Marcello Farina, Austin Chandler Peel, Yi Wang

Euclid's photometric galaxy cluster survey has the potential to be a very competitive cosmological probe. The main cosmological probe with observations of clusters is their number count, within which the halo mass function (HMF) is a key theoretical quanti ...

EDP SCIENCES S A2023

Reducing Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty by Combining Models With Satellite and Within-The-Atmosphere Observations: A Three-Way Street

Athanasios Nenes

Aerosol forcing uncertainty represents the largest climate forcing uncertainty overall. Its magnitude has remained virtually undiminished over the past 20 years despite considerable advances in understanding most of the key contributing elements. Recent wo ...

AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION2023

An Unbiased Method of Measuring the Ratio of Two Data Sets

Jean-Paul Richard Kneib, Huanyuan Shan

In certain cases of astronomical data analysis, the meaningful physical quantity to extract is the ratio R between two data sets. Examples include the lensing ratio, the interloper rate in spectroscopic redshift samples, and the decay rate of gravitational ...

IOP Publishing Ltd2023

Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for engineering design and health prognostics: A tutorial

Olga Fink, Luca Biggio

On top of machine learning (ML) models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and reliability impr ...

2023

Adaptive Fingers Coordination for Robust Grasp and In-Hand Manipulation Under Disturbances and Unknown Dynamics

Aude Billard, Farshad Khadivar

We present a control framework for achieving a robust object grasp and manipulation in hand. In-hand manipulation remains a demanding task as the object is never stable and task success relies on carefully synchronizing the fingers' dynamics. Indeed, finge ...

IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC2023

Higher Order Asymptotics: Applications to Satellite Conjunction and Boundary Problems

Soumaya Elkantassi

Higher-order asymptotics provide accurate approximations for use in parametric statistical modelling. In this thesis, we investigate using higher-order approximations in two-specific settings, with a particular emphasis on the tangent exponential model. ...

EPFL2023

Risk of incorrect choices due to uncertainty in BPS evaluations of conceptual-stage neighbourhood-scale building designs

Marilyne Andersen, Luisa Pastore, Minu Agarwal

At the conceptual stage, building performance simulation (BPS) based evaluations are being increasingly used for tasks such as ranking of competing massing design proposals. However, such conceptual stage evaluations suffer from information deficiency in b ...

2023

Machine Learning Methods for Robust Uncertainty Quantification and Controller Approximation

Emilio Maddalena

This thesis is situated at the crossroads between machine learning and control engineering. Our contributions are both theoretical, through proposing a new uncertainty quantification methodology in a kernelized context; and experimental, through investigat ...

EPFL2023

Data-Driven Control and Optimization under Noisy and Uncertain Conditions

Baiwei Guo

Control systems operating in real-world environments often face disturbances arising from measurement noise and model mismatch. These factors can significantly impact the perfor- mance and safety of the system. In this thesis, we aim to leverage data to de ...

EPFL2023

Wind, Hail, and Climate Extremes: Modelling and Attribution Studies for Environmental Data

Ophélia Mireille Anna Miralles

This thesis presents work at the junction of statistics and climate science. We first provide methodology for use by climate scientists when performing fast event attribution using extreme value theory, and then describe two interdisciplinary projects in c ...

EPFL2023

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