Potentials of Negative Emissions in the Design of Climate Agreements

The aim of this paper is to explore the long-term relevance of negative emissions for the attainment of Paris agreement goals. For this purpose, we extend a game theoretic meta-model used to assess the future of Paris agreement to the time horizon 2100 and we include in the strategic decisions of the negotiating coalitions the use of Carbon Dioxyde Removal (CDR) technologies. The meta-game model is calibrated through statistical emulation of GEMINI-E3, a world computable general equilibrium model. It permits the identication of a fair sharing of the safety cumulative emissions budget, compatible with a 2°C warming. In this scenario CDR technologies play an important strategic role in the second half of the century and leave some room for fossil fuels in the primary energy balance.