The Impact of the Trump Reelection on Mexican Immigration Pressures in Alternative Countries

We look at the impact of the recent Trump reelection on the location choices of potential Mexican migrants. Using migration aspiration data, we show that the Trump presidency in 2016 increased disapproval rates of the US leadership, which in turn reduced the attractiveness of the US. Using a Cross-Nested Logit model, we find that the new reelection will create heterogeneous immigration pressures from Mexico across foreign locations. Canada, the UK and Western European countries will face higher immigration pressures. This reelection will lower the skill content of Mexican potential immigrants in the US and induce an opposite effect in destinations perceived as close substitutes.