Carving the transformation pathways to sustainable futures: A novel analytical framework for backcasting in sustainability transitions

Despite the increasing number of climate and sustainability pledges, knowledge of how to reach those targets within a given system – systems and transformation knowledge – is often lacking. Backcasting can be highly relevant for tackling this transformation gap as it starts from future targets and works backwards to uncover how they can be achieved. However, most backcasting applications tend to lack formal tools and assessments, raising concerns over their rigor and traceability. This paper addresses these limitations and presents a novel analytical framework to tackle the what-who-how questions crucial for backcasting. The analytical framework presents a toolkit combining various approaches such as cross-impact balance analysis, actor analysis, network analysis, and stakeholder workshops to generate systems and transformation knowledge. The framework enables the generation of transformation pathways to desirable futures in different cases. Paper recycling serves as an illustrative case study to demonstrate its empirical application. The framework contributes to strengthening of the analytical dimension of backcasting by adding rigor and traceability to the generation of scenarios and assessment of their socio-political feasibility. By providing a novel approach to generate transformation knowledge in formalised, systematic and participatory way, we aim to contribute to closing the transformation gap in science and practice.