Embedding Stochasticity in Building Simulation Through Synthetic Weather Files

This paper presents an attempt to create synthetic weather data for stochastic building simulation. The synthetic data are created entirely from the freely available Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) weather files using time series models and resampling. The generated data turn out to be representative of recorded data for our case study without any prior ‘knowledge’ of the long term distributions of meteorological parameters. The current model does not address spells above or below some temperature of interest (e.g. heat waves), and the authors are working to incorporate that in future work. Another avenue for further exploration is modifying the mean to incorporate the results of Regional Climate Models for future conditions. Correlation of the synthetic data with synthetic solar radiation and humidity has been verified and the authors’ work with this ensemble of weather time series of interest will be presented in future publications.