Publications associées à Likelihood Estimation for the INAR(p) Model by Saddlepoint Approximation

Publications associées (32)

Convex Computation of Value-at-risk Bounds for Stochastic Processes

This article formulates algorithms to upper-bound the maximum value-at-risk (VaR) of a state function along trajectories of stochastic processes. The VaR is upper bounded by two methods: minimax tail-bounds (Cantelli/Vysochanskij-Petunin) and Expected Shor ...

IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC2025

OASIS: An integrated optimisation framework for activity scheduling

Janody Pougala

Activity-based models offer the potential for a far deeper understanding of daily mobility behaviour than trip-based models. Based on the fundamental assumption that travel demand is derived from the need to do activities, they are flexible tools that aim ...

EPFL2024

Technosignatures Longevity and Lindy's Law

Claudio Grimaldi

The probability of detecting technosignatures (i.e., evidence of technological activity beyond Earth) increases with their longevity, or the time interval over which they manifest. Therefore, the assumed distribution of longevities has some bearing on the ...

Iop Publishing Ltd2024

Boosting likelihood learning with event reweighting

Andrea Wulzer, Alfredo Glioti, Siyu Chen

Extracting maximal information from experimental data requires access to the likelihood function, which however is never directly available for complex experiments like those performed at high energy colliders. Theoretical predictions are obtained in this ...

Springer Nature2024

On distributional autoregression and iterated transportation

Victor Panaretos, Laya Ghodrati

We consider the problem of defining and fitting models of autoregressive time series of probability distributions on a compact interval of Double-struck capital R. An order-1 autoregressive model in this context is to be understood as a Markov chain, where ...

Wiley2024

Deciphering the nature of cell state transitions in single cells using quantitative modeling of temporal dynamics

Alex Russell Lederer

Cells are the smallest operational units of living systems. Through synthesis of various biomolecules and exchange of signals with the environment, cells tightly regulate their composition to realize a specific functional state. The transformation of a cel ...

EPFL2024

Recovering Static and Time-Varying Communities Using Persistent Edges

Maximilien Claude Robert Dreveton

This article focuses on spectral methods for recovering communities in temporal networks. In the case of fixed communities, spectral clustering on the simple time-aggregated graph (i.e., the weighted graph formed by the sum of the interactions over all tem ...

Ieee Computer Soc2024

TIC-TAC: A Framework for Improved Covariance Estimation in Deep Heteroscedastic Regression

Mathieu Salzmann, Alexandre Massoud Alahi, Megh Hiren Shukla

Deep heteroscedastic regression involves jointly optimizing the mean and covariance of the predicted distribution using the negative log-likelihood. However, recent works show that this may result in sub-optimal convergence due to the challenges associated ...

2024

Optimal Depth of Discharge for Electric Batteries with Robust Capacity-Shrinkage Estimator

Thomas Alois Weber

A user’s benefit from the energy stored in a battery over its lifetime depends on the time-varying characteristics of the battery, which are in turn affected by the chosen usage behavior. Both the capacity shrinkage and the number of lifetime cycles are st ...

2024

Statistical Inference for Inverse Problems: From Sparsity-Based Methods to Neural Networks

Pakshal Narendra Bohra

In inverse problems, the task is to reconstruct an unknown signal from its possibly noise-corrupted measurements. Penalized-likelihood-based estimation and Bayesian estimation are two powerful statistical paradigms for the resolution of such problems. They ...

EPFL2024

A Streamline Upwind Petrov-Galerkin Reduced Order Method for Advection-Dominated Partial Differential Equations Under Optimal Control

Gianluigi Rozza, Fabio Zoccolan

In this paper we will consider distributed Linear-Quadratic Optimal Control Problems dealing with Advection-Diffusion PDEs for high values of the Peclet number. In this situation, computational instabilities occur, both for steady and unsteady cases. A Str ...

Walter De Gruyter Gmbh2024

Spectral Estimators for High-Dimensional Matrix Inference

Farzad Pourkamali

A key challenge across many disciplines is to extract meaningful information from data which is often obscured by noise. These datasets are typically represented as large matrices. Given the current trend of ever-increasing data volumes, with datasets grow ...

EPFL2024

Measurement of the K+ → π+γγ decay

Alessandro Mapelli, Radoslav Marchevski, Alina Kleimenova

A sample of 3984 candidates of the K+ -> pi(+)gamma gamma decay, with an estimated background of 291 +/- 14 events, was collected by the NA62 experiment at CERN during 2017-2018. In order to describe the observed di-photon mass spectrum, the next-to-leadin ...

Elsevier2024

Random matrix methods for high-dimensional machine learning models

Antoine Philippe Michel Bodin

In the rapidly evolving landscape of machine learning research, neural networks stand out with their ever-expanding number of parameters and reliance on increasingly large datasets. The financial cost and computational resources required for the training p ...

EPFL2024

OASIS: Optimisation-based Activity Scheduling with Integrated Simultaneous choice dimensions

Michel Bierlaire, Timothy Michael Hillel, Janody Pougala

Activity-based models offer the potential of a far deeper understanding of daily mobility behaviour than trip-based models. However, activity-based models used both in research and practice have often relied on applying sequential choice models between sub ...

2023

Unbiased Likelihood Estimation of Wright–Fisher Diffusion Processes

Fabio Nobile

In this paper we propose a Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation strategy for discretely observed Wright–Fisher diffusions. Our approach provides an unbiased estimator of the likelihood function and is based on exact simulation techniques that are of s ...

Springer Cham2024

An equilibrated flux a posteriori error estimator for defeaturing problems

Annalisa Buffa, Rafael Vazquez Hernandez, Ondine Gabrielle Chanon

An a posteriori error estimator based on an equilibrated flux reconstruction is proposed for defeaturing problems in the context of finite element discretizations. Defeaturing consists in the simplification of a geometry by removing features that are consi ...

2023

Experimental Validation of a Unified and Linear State Estimation Method for Hybrid AC/DC Microgrids

Mario Paolone, Willem Lambrichts

This paper presents the experimental validation of a linear recursive state estimation (SE) process for hybrid AC/DC microgrids proposed in the authors' previous work. The SE uses a unified and linear measurement model that relies on the use of synchronize ...

IEEE2023

The elliptical Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process

Sofia Charlotta Olhede

We introduce the elliptical Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, which is a generalisation of the well-known univariate OU process to bivariate time series. This process maps out elliptical stochastic oscillations over time in the complex plane, which are obse ...

INT PRESS BOSTON, INC2023

ReLU Neural Network Galerkin BEM

Fernando José Henriquez Barraza

We introduce Neural Network (NN for short) approximation architectures for the numerical solution of Boundary Integral Equations (BIEs for short). We exemplify the proposed NN approach for the boundary reduction of the potential problem in two spatial dime ...

SPRINGER/PLENUM PUBLISHERS2023