Publications de Bettina Schaefli

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The development of stream temperature regression models at regional scales has regained some popularity over the past years. These models are used to predict stream temperature in ungauged catchments to assess the impact of human activities or climate chan ...

This report presents past observations and projects the future development of water temperature in Swiss lakes and rivers. Projections are made until the end of the 21st century using the CH2018 climate scenarios. Besides climate change effects on temperat ...

Hydropower systems often operate in contextual conditions quite different from those for which they have been planned for. Often, the pace at which the changes occur does not invite operators to analyse their long-term effects and quantify the resilience of these system. During the last decades hydropower has experienced strong changes. Energy markets have evolved, dam safety guidelines and legislations have undergone improvements, societal awareness towards their potentially adverse effects on natural ecos

Streamflow recession analysis characterizes the storage-outflow relationship in catchments. This relationship, which typically follows a power law, summarizes all catchment-scale subsurface hydrological processes and has long been known to be a key descrip ...

We present a travel time formulation of water and energy transport at sub-catchment scale, resulting in a closed form solution for water temperature evolution in the subsoil compartment. The derived equations are implemented in Alpine3D, a physically-based model of snow processes, which provides the necessary boundary conditions to perform hydro-thermal response simulations of Alpine catchments. The model set-up accounts for advective and non-advective energy fluxes to perform spatially distributed simulati

Most hydrological models are valid at most only in a few places and cannot be reasonably transferred to other places or to far distant time periods. Transfer in space is difficult because the models are conditioned on past observations at particular places ...

A probabilistic assessment of climate change and related impacts should consider a large range of potential future climate scenarios. State-of-the-art climate models, especially coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models and Regional Climate Model ...

Bayesian inference of posterior parameter distributions has become widely used in hydrological modeling to estimate the associated modeling uncertainty. The classical underlying statistical model assumes a Gaussian modeling error with zero mean and a given ...

We present a travel time formulation of water and energy transport at sub-catchment scale. The derived equations are implemented in Alpine3D, a physically-based model of snow processes, which provides the necessary boundary conditions to perform hydro-thermal response simulations of Alpine catchments. The model set-up accounts for advective and non- advective energy fluxes to perform spatially distributed simulations of streamflow and temperature in river networks having an arbitrary degree of geomorphologi

Epidemiological models can be a crucially important tool for decision-making during disease outbreaks. The range of possible applications spans from real-time forecasting and allocation of health-care resources to testing alterna- tive intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. Our spatially explicit, mechanistic models for cholera epidemics have been successfully applied to several epidemics including, the one that struck Haiti in late 2010 and is still

We present here a model which couples the hydrologic component and the transport of herbicides within a catchment. The model used takes into account the age structure of the stream water in order to characterize short and long term fluctuations of herbicide flux concentrations. The highly dynamic behavior of herbicides concentrations may lead to the exceedance of specific toxic threshold and is therefore key to exposure risk assessment of aquatic ecosystems. The model is based on a travel time formulation o

In its Energy Strategy 2050, Switzerland is revising its energy perspectives with a strong focus on renewable sources of energy and in particular hydropower. In this context, the Swiss Government funded a number of competence centers for energy research (S ...

In our contribution we present a semi-distributed model for thermo-hydrologic simulations of snow-covered alpine catchments, based on the travel time formulation of water and energy transport at sub-catchment scale. The output consists of distributed information on stream flow and stream temperature along a river network. The model takes advantage of detailed descriptions of snow cover evolution, snow melt rate and soil water transport provided by Alpine3D, the physically-based and fully-distributed model o

This PhD thesis presents the development of a methodological framework to analyse potential climate change impacts on a high mountainous water resources system and to quantify the associated modelling uncertainties. The main objective is to show whether st ...

Extreme flood simulation with synthetic extreme precipitation events raises unavoidable questions about the choice of initial conditions. State-of-the-art extreme flood estimation frameworks propose to address these questions with the help of semicontinuou ...

This paper addresses two major challenges in the field of climate change impact analysis on water resources systems: i) incorporation of a large range of potential climate change scenarios and ii) quantification of related modelling uncertainties. The deve ...

The hydrologic response of Alpine catchments embeds the geomorphologic signature of the dominant drivers influencing snowmelt runoff dynamics. The focus of this work is the role of aspect as the main control on incoming radiation. We investigate the link between hillslope aspects and discharge generation for a study catchment in the Swiss Alps, coupling a physical model for the simulation of snowmelt to an hydrologic response model accounting for geomorphology. Incoming radiation and topographical shading a

Uncertainty affects hydrological modelling efforts from the very measurements (or forecasts) that serve as inputs to the more or less inaccurate predictions that are produced. Uncertainty is truly inescapable in hydrology and yet, due to the theoretical and technical hurdles associated with its quantification, it is at times still neglected or estimated only qualitatively. In recent years the scientific community has made a significant effort towards quantifying this hydrologic prediction uncertainty. Despi

Increasing meteorological data availability and quality implies an adaptation of the interpolation methods for data combination. In this paper, we propose a new method to efficiently combine weather radar data with data from two heated rain gauge networks ...

Bettina Schaefli

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Stream temperature prediction in ungauged basins: review of recent approaches and description of a new physics-derived statistical model

Evolution of stream and lake water temperature under climate change

Four decades of hindsight into a complex hydropower system

Estimation of streamflow recession parameters: New insights from an analytic streamflow distribution model

Flow and Temperature Dynamics in the Hydrologic Response: Travel Time Formulation and Application to Alpine Catchments

HESS Opinions: Hydrologic predictions in a changing environment: behavioral modeling

Accounting for global mean warming and scaling uncertainties in climate change impact studies: application to a regulated lake system

Quantifying hydrological modeling errors through a mixture of normal distributions

Flow and Temperature Dynamics in the Hydrologic Response of Alpine Catchments: Travel Time Formulation and Geomorphologic Signatures

Parameter and uncertainty estimation for mechanistic, spatially explicit epidemiological models

Herbicides export dynamics of a mid-sized lake tributary: lessons from observations and modelling

Tapping hidden hydropower potential in Swiss Alpine catchments in the context of the planned nuclear power phase out

Hydrological and thermal response modelling based on travel time formulation of water end energy transport in snow-covered alpine catchments

Hydrological and thermal response modeling based on travel time formulation of water and energy transport in snow-covered Alpine catchments

Quantification of modelling uncertainties in climate change impact studies on water resources : application to a glacier-fed hydropower production system in the Swiss Alps

New Approach to Identifying Critical Initial Conditions for Extreme Flood Simulations in a Semicontinuous Simulation Framework

Climate change and hydropower production in the Swiss Alps: quantification of potential impacts and related modelling uncertainties

The Signature of Hillslope Aspects on the Hydrologic Response of Snow-Covered Catchments

Reliable estimates of predictive uncertainty for an Alpine catchment using a non-parametric methodology

Spatial interpolation of precipitation from multiple rain gauge networks and weather radar data for operational applications in Alpine catchments