Geospatial modelling of the potential for coupling electric vehicle charging with photovoltaic electricity generation in Europe

The urgent need to decarbonize Europe's energy sector has placed electrification and the deployment of renewable electricity production at the forefront of climate change mitigation strategies. The integration of intermittent and distributed renewable energy sources, such as solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity, into the power grid will require both increased flexibility in electricity demand and adequate storage capacity. On the other side, the electrification of private passenger mobility will further increase the need for decarbonised electricity. At the same time, electric vehicles (EVs) could represent an opportunity to enhance flexibility in electricity consumption and serve as local storage for renewable electricity production. By shifting EV charging during the day, it can contribute to absorbing PV production peaks and mitigate additional demand during peak periods. Furthermore, the EV batteries can be discharged to the grid or home during the evening or other demand peaks via vehicle-to-grid (V2G) strategies. However, the use of EVs, PV and V2G requires deep changes in our approach to energy systems and personal mobility. For this reason, it is of primary importance to make models available highlight the potential of V2G in reducing CO2 emissions, lowering costs and increase our energy sovereignty. Moreover, policymakers and energy planners, especially at the local scale, need to have access to tools to help them plan the electrification of the society and projection of the effects of their decisions.

This thesis addresses the challenge of modelling the large-scale electrification of private mobility in Europe until 2050, with a focus on charging needs, charging infrastructure and the synergies between EVs and PV. The approach consists in the geographic and temporal modelling of mobility and charging needs, that are then compared temporally with a modelled PV production, to quantify the synergies of EV and PV considering different charging strategies (smart, V2G) while estimating the associated required charging infrastructure. The work presentes a comprehensive methodology, based only on open data, to estimate the mobility needs, charging needs, PV coupling potential and charging infrastructure deployment in Europe up to 2035. The models developed in this work are implemented in the open source online platform citiwatts.eu, which can be used by anyone to create user-defined scenarios and projections. Thus, this work provides policymakers, energy planners, and other stakeholders with insights to design sustainable mobility systems.