Publication

Uncertainty in Causality: A New Frontier

Boi Faltings
2025

Abstract

Understanding uncertainty in causality is vital in various domains, including core NLP tasks like event causality extraction, commonsense reasoning, and counterfactual text generation. However, existing literature lacks a comprehensive examination of this area. This survey aims to fill this gap by thoroughly reviewing the uncertainty in causality. We first introduce a novel trichotomy, categorizing causal uncertainty into aleatoric (inherent randomness in causal data), epistemic (causal model limitations), and ontological (existence of causal links) uncertainty. We then survey methods for quantifying uncertainty in causal analysis and highlight the complementary relationship between causal uncertainty and causal strength. Furthermore, we examine the challenges that large language models (LLMs) face in handling causal uncertainty, such as hallucinations and inconsistencies, and propose key traits for an optimal causal LLM. Our paper reviews current approaches and outlines future research directions, aiming to serve as a practical guide for researchers and practitioners in this emerging field.

Official source

https://infoscience.epfl.ch/entities/publication/ee1ba655-da29-4520-bae6-1c9e2a959f00

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Boi Faltings
2025

Abstract

Official source

https://infoscience.epfl.ch/entities/publication/ee1ba655-da29-4520-bae6-1c9e2a959f00

About this result

Related concepts (32)

Causal inference

Causal inference is the process of determining the independent, actual effect of a particular phenomenon that is a component of a larger system. The main difference between causal inference and inference of association is that causal inference analyzes the response of an effect variable when a cause of the effect variable is changed. The science of why things occur is called etiology, and can be described using the language of scientific causal notation. Causal inference is said to provide the evidence of causality theorized by causal reasoning.

Rubin causal model

The Rubin causal model (RCM), also known as the Neyman–Rubin causal model, is an approach to the statistical analysis of cause and effect based on the framework of potential outcomes, named after Donald Rubin. The name "Rubin causal model" was first coined by Paul W. Holland. The potential outcomes framework was first proposed by Jerzy Neyman in his 1923 Master's thesis, though he discussed it only in the context of completely randomized experiments.

Causality

Causality (also called causation, or cause and effect) is influence by which one event, process, state, or object (a cause) contributes to the production of another event, process, state, or object (an effect) where the cause is partly responsible for the effect, and the effect is partly dependent on the cause. In general, a process has many causes, which are also said to be causal factors for it, and all lie in its past. An effect can in turn be a cause of, or causal factor for, many other effects, which all lie in its future.