Publication

An integrated ordered logit and latent variable model for accident injury severity and risk-taking behavior

Michel Bierlaire
2025

Abstract

This study presents a flexible model for risk-taking behavior and accident injury severity. It is specifically designed to evaluate the impact of Via Sicura, a Swiss road safety program, on the severity of accident outcomes. Our proposed model treats the risk-taking behavior of each driver as a latent variable that depends on a number of socioeconomic and contextual factors, and whose manifestation can be measured by means of behavioral indicators. The aggregated risk, a central feature of our framework, represents the combined latent risk-taking behaviors among all drivers within an accident and is successfully identified as explanatory of the severity of injuries sustained by all individuals involved. Our findings reveal that Via Sicura's repressive measures successfully deter risk-taking behavior among drivers, preventing an estimated 63 fatal, 876 major and 2,303 minor injuries over a ten-year period.

Official source

https://infoscience.epfl.ch/entities/publication/da91037f-8efd-4508-81a2-58cf9a034092

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Michel Bierlaire
2025

Abstract

Official source

https://infoscience.epfl.ch/entities/publication/da91037f-8efd-4508-81a2-58cf9a034092

About this result

Related concepts (31)

Accident

An accident is an unintended, normally unwanted event that was not directly caused by humans. The term accident implies that nobody should be blamed, but the event may have been caused by unrecognized or unaddressed risks. Most researchers who study unintentional injury avoid using the term accident and focus on factors that increase risk of severe injury and that reduce injury incidence and severity. For example, when a tree falls down during a wind storm, its fall may not have been caused by humans, but the tree's type, size, health, location, or improper maintenance may have contributed to the result.

Latent variable model

A latent variable model is a statistical model that relates a set of observable variables (also called manifest variables or indicators) to a set of latent variables. It is assumed that the responses on the indicators or manifest variables are the result of an individual's position on the latent variable(s), and that the manifest variables have nothing in common after controlling for the latent variable (local independence).

Risk

In simple terms, risk is the possibility of something bad happening. Risk involves uncertainty about the effects/implications of an activity with respect to something that humans value (such as health, well-being, wealth, property or the environment), often focusing on negative, undesirable consequences. Many different definitions have been proposed. The international standard definition of risk for common understanding in different applications is "effect of uncertainty on objectives".

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An integrated ordered logit and latent variable model for accident injury severity and risk-taking behavior

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