Publication

Uncertainties in photochemical grid modeling of ozone. The impact of uncertainties in meteorological inputs

Hubert van den Bergh, Alain Clappier
2000
Conference Papers

Abstract

Eulerian photochem. grid models are widely used in the making of policy decisions concerning emission controls. However, significant uncertainties persist in a host of crucial input parameters. Quantifying and understanding their implications have become imperative from both the scientific and policy perspectives. Meteorol. uncertainties have a special significance because efforts to quantify them using conventional techniques based on expert ests. have failed to account for the complex correlations in their nonlinear spatial and temporal evolution. A comprehensive effort to quantify meteorol. uncertainties has been accomplished by subjecting a mesoscale meteorol. model to Monte Carlo simulations based on uncertainties in key base input parameters for the 3-day summer smog POLLUMET episode over the Swiss plateau. Monte Carlo uncertainty anal. based on the resulting meteorol. input uncertainties was then carried out using a photochem. grid model. Preliminary post-simulation anal. and statistics on the uncertainties in peak ozone estn. and the significance of considering correlations among inputs in sampling are presented.

Official source

https://infoscience.epfl.ch/entities/publication/c5c35f63-8dbc-4d16-9dfb-e0446dac2258

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Hubert van den Bergh, Alain Clappier
2000
Conference Papers

Abstract

Official source

https://infoscience.epfl.ch/entities/publication/c5c35f63-8dbc-4d16-9dfb-e0446dac2258

About this result

Related concepts (30)

Uncertainty quantification

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the science of quantitative characterization and estimation of uncertainties in both computational and real world applications. It tries to determine how likely certain outcomes are if some aspects of the system are not exactly known. An example would be to predict the acceleration of a human body in a head-on crash with another car: even if the speed was exactly known, small differences in the manufacturing of individual cars, how tightly every bolt has been tightened, etc.

Policy

Policy is a deliberate system of guidelines to guide decisions and achieve rational outcomes. A policy is a statement of intent and is implemented as a procedure or protocol. Policies are generally adopted by a governance body within an organization. Policies can assist in both subjective and objective decision making. Policies used in subjective decision-making usually assist senior management with decisions that must be based on the relative merits of a number of factors, and as a result, are often hard to test objectively, e.

Measurement uncertainty

In metrology, measurement uncertainty is the expression of the statistical dispersion of the values attributed to a measured quantity. All measurements are subject to uncertainty and a measurement result is complete only when it is accompanied by a statement of the associated uncertainty, such as the standard deviation. By international agreement, this uncertainty has a probabilistic basis and reflects incomplete knowledge of the quantity value. It is a non-negative parameter.

Related publications (7)

Uncertainties in photochemical grid modeling of ozone. The impact of uncertainties in meteorological inputs

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