Publications related to Expert Judgements in Risk Analysis: a Strategy to Overcome Uncertainities

Related publications (30)

Using automated design appraisal to model building-specific devaluation risk due to land-use change

Uncertainty of spillover effects – including property devaluation - from proposed land-use change elicits opposition to local development. This hinders cities’ ability to implement land-use policy aimed at housing affordability and environmental sustainabi ...

2024

Waterborne Virus Transport and Risk Assessment in Lake Geneva Under Climate Change

Tamar Kohn, Chaojie Li

Climate changes influence lake hydrodynamics and radiation levels and thus may affect the fate and transport of waterborne pathogens in lakes. This study examines the impact of climate change on the fate, transport, and associated risks of four waterborne ...

2024

Model uncertainties in action effects and load bearing capacity calculation in statically indeterminate reinforced concrete structures

Aurelio Muttoni, Alain Nussbaumer, Xhemsi Malja

For the dimensioning and assessment of structures, it is common practice to compare action effects with sectional resistances. Extensive studies have been performed to quantify the model uncertainty on the resistance side. However, for statically indetermi ...

Ernst & Sohn2024

Quartiers rhodaniens en transition

Sara Sonia Formery Regazzoni

Over the course of history, the relationship between cities and their waters has shown different gradients of interweaving, marked by cycles of bonding and distancing. Following a period of complete neglect of urban watercourses, the versatile, multifacete ...

EPFL2024

Shear and steel-fibre reinforcement for the punching resistance of flat slabs at internal and edge columns

Diego Hernández Fraile

Reinforced concrete flat slabs consist of a continuous, thin concrete plate that rests on a grid of columns. The supporting surface of the columns is very small compared to the floor plan dimensions, leading to concentrations of shear forces near the colum ...

EPFL2024

A FEM modelling workflow to simulate THM effects in the rock around nuclear waste packages

Matthias Timothee Stanislas Wojnarowicz

High-level waste, stemming from nuclear electricity generation poses significant environmental and safety concerns. Currently, high-level wastes are stored in interim facilities needing constant monitoring and waiting for a definitive solution. Deep geolog ...

EPFL2024

Assessment framework for deepfake detection in real-world situations

Touradj Ebrahimi, Yuhang Lu

Detecting digital face manipulation in images and video has attracted extensive attention due to the potential risk to public trust. To counteract the malicious usage of such techniques, deep learning-based deepfake detection methods have been employed and ...

2024

Federated learning with uncertainty-based client clustering for fleet-wide fault diagnosis

Olga Fink, Hao Lu

Operators from various industries have been pushing the adoption of wireless sensing nodes for industrial monitoring, and such efforts have produced sizeable condition monitoring datasets that can be used to build diagnosis algorithms capable of warning ma ...

2024

On the Generalization of Stochastic Gradient Descent with Momentum

Volkan Cevher, Kimon Antonakopoulos

While momentum-based accelerated variants of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) are widely used when training machine learning models, there is little theoretical understanding on the generalization error of such methods. In this work, we first show that th ...

Microtome Publishing2024

Toward Reliable Human Pose Forecasting With Uncertainty

Alexandre Massoud Alahi, Saeed Saadatnejad, Taylor Ferdinand Mordan

Recently, there has been an arms race of pose forecasting methods aimed at solving the spatio-temporal task of predicting a sequence of future 3D poses of a person given a sequence of past observed ones. However, the lack of unified benchmarks and limited ...

2024

Safety climate in university laboratories. Part I: model development and practical application

Thierry Meyer, Anastasia Jung

Safety climate assessment has become a regular practice for most organisations. However, it is often limited to questionnaires, providing only qualitative information. The indicator-based approach takes precedence over decision-making, and practical risk a ...

2023

Safety risk management in University laboratories

Anastasia Jung

Risk management has become an essential element in the functioning of modern society. Correct risk identification and assessment are undoubtedly crucial to improving overall safety; nevertheless, often, it is accompanied by the wrong selection of correctiv ...

EPFL2023

Can one hear the shape of a target zone?

Max-Olivier Hongler

We develop an exchange rate target zone model with finite exit time and non-Gaussian tails. We show how the tails are a consequence of time-varying investor risk aversion, which generates mean-preserving spreads in the fundamental distribution. We solve ex ...

2023

Combining European and US risk prediction models with polygenic risk scores to refine cardiovascular prevention: the CoLaus|PsyCoLaus Study

Jacques Fellay, Christian Axel Wandall Thorball

Lay Summary The aim of this study is to determine whether using polygenic risk scores improves the prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk when combined with clinical scores currently recommended by European and US guidelines on cardiovas ...

OXFORD UNIV PRESS2023

Reliability analysis and partial safety format calibration considering the characteristics of the resistance of reinforced concrete structures

Qianhui Yu

Every engineering calculation is an approximation of reality, with inevitable uncertainties involved. This fact implies that a reliability verification accounting for the uncertainties is a necessary step in the design and assessment of structures. Nowaday ...

EPFL2023

Greening the Swiss National Bank's Portfolio

Rüdiger Fahlenbrach, Eric Jondeau

Central banks are increasingly concerned about climate-related risks and want to ensure that the financial system is resilient to them. As they integrate these risks into financial stability monitoring, they also discuss how to apply environmental criteria ...

OXFORD UNIV PRESS2023

An equilibrated flux a posteriori error estimator for defeaturing problems

Annalisa Buffa, Rafael Vazquez Hernandez, Ondine Gabrielle Chanon

An a posteriori error estimator based on an equilibrated flux reconstruction is proposed for defeaturing problems in the context of finite element discretizations. Defeaturing consists in the simplification of a geometry by removing features that are consi ...

2023

Bayes Security: A Not So Average Metric

Carmela González Troncoso, Giovanni Cherubin

Security system designers favor worst-case security metrics, such as those derived from differential privacy (DP), due to the strong guarantees they provide. On the downside, these guarantees result in a high penalty on the system's performance. In this pa ...

IEEE2023

Automated Design Appraisal: Estimating Real Estate Price Growth and Value at Risk Due to Local Development

Adam Robert Swietek

Financial criteria in architectural design evaluation are limited to cost performance. Here, I introduce a method – Automated Design Appraisal (ADA) – to predict the market price of a generated building design concept within a local urban context. Integrat ...

2023

Closed form approximation methods for portfolio valuation and risk management

Lotfi Boudabsa

In this thesis we present three closed form approximation methods for portfolio valuation and risk management. The first chapter is titled ``Kernel methods for portfolio valuation and risk management'', and is a joint work with Damir Filipovi'c (SFI and ...

EPFL2023