Publications related to Frequentist estimation of an epidemic's spreading potential when observations are scarce

Anthony C Davison and Igor Rodionov's contribution to the Discussion of 'Estimating means of bounded random variables by betting' by Waudby-Smith and Ramdas

Anthony Christopher Davison, Igor Rodionov

We derive confidence intervals (CIs) and confidence sequences (CSs) for the classical problem of estimating a bounded mean. Our approach generalizes and improves on the celebrated Chernoff method, yielding the best closed-form "empirical-Bernstein" CSs and ...

Oxford Univ Press2024

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021

Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre, Pan Xu, Myungjin Kim, Shan Yu, Lei Gao, Weitong Zhang, Wei Cao, Xinyi Li

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and ...

Public Library Science2024

Fair real-time control of energy storage systems in active distribution networks in the presence of uncertainties

Plouton Grammatikos

The thesis explores the issue of fairness in the real-time (RT) control of battery energy storage systems (BESSs) hosted in active distribution networks (ADNs) in the presence of uncertainties by proposing and experimentally validating appropriate control ...

EPFL2024

Epidemicity indices and reproduction numbers from infectious disease data in connected human populations

Andrea Rinaldo, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto, Cristiano Trevisin

We focus on distinctive data-driven measures of the fate of ongoing epidemics. The relevance of our pursuit is suggested by recent results proving that the short-term temporal evolution of infection spread is described by an epidemicity index related to th ...

2024

A diversity-driven discovery of potential nanoporous materials for energy-related applications

Sauradeep Majumdar

The design and discovery of potential novel materials is critical for the advancement of climate change mitigation technologies. In this respect, metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) have received considerable attention over the last two decades. The combinatio ...

EPFL2024

Maximum likelihood bolometry for ASDEX upgrade experiments

Olivier Claude Martin Février, Riccardo Rossi

Bolometry is an essential diagnostic for calculating the power balances and for the understanding of different physical aspects of tokamak experiments. The reconstruction method based on the Maximum Likelihood (ML) principle, developed initially for JET, h ...

Iop Publishing Ltd2023

Robust discrete choice models with t-distributed kernel errors

Michel Bierlaire, Prateek Bansal, Thomas Gasos

Outliers in discrete choice response data may result from misclassification and misreporting of the response variable and from choice behaviour that is inconsistent with modelling assumptions (e.g. random utility maximisation). In the presence of outliers, ...

2023

A Shape Derivative Approach to Domain Simplification

Ondine Gabrielle Chanon, Annalisa Buffa, Alessandra Arrigoni, Jochen Peter Hinz

The objective of this study is to address the difficulty of simplifying the geometric model in which a differential problem is formulated, also called defeaturing, while simultaneously ensuring that the accuracy of the solution is maintained under control. ...

Elsevier Sci Ltd2023

An equilibrated flux a posteriori error estimator for defeaturing problems

Ondine Gabrielle Chanon, Annalisa Buffa, Rafael Vazquez Hernandez, Denise Grappein

An a posteriori error estimator based on an equilibrated flux reconstruction is proposed for defeaturing problems in the context of finite element discretizations. Defeaturing consists in the simplification of a geometry by removing features that are consi ...

2023

Nonparametric estimation for SDE with sparsely sampled paths: An FDA perspective

Victor Panaretos, Neda Mohammadi Jouzdani

We consider the problem of nonparametric estimation of the drift and diffusion coefficients of a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE), based on n independent replicates {Xi(t) : t is an element of [0 , 1]}13 d B(t), where alpha is an element of {0 , 1} a ...

Elsevier2024

Leukocyte Count and Coronary Artery Disease Events in People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: A Longitudinal Study

Jacques Fellay, Christian Axel Wandall Thorball

Leukocyte count is associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) events in the general population. Here we show that leukocytes are independently associated with CAD events in people with HIV in Switzerland, after adjusting for traditional and HIVrelated r ...

OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC2023

Unbiased Likelihood Estimation of Wright–Fisher Diffusion Processes

Fabio Nobile

In this paper we propose a Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation strategy for discretely observed Wright–Fisher diffusions. Our approach provides an unbiased estimator of the likelihood function and is based on exact simulation techniques that are of s ...

Springer Cham2024

Analysis-aware defeaturing of complex geometries with Neumann features

Ondine Gabrielle Chanon, Pablo Antolin Sanchez

Local modifications of a computational domain are often performed in order to simplify the meshing process and to reduce computational costs and memory requirements. However, removing geometrical features of a domain often introduces a non-negligible error ...

Wiley2023

Reinforcement learning approach to control an inverted pendulum: A general framework for educational purposes

Jesus Sanchez Rodriguez

Machine learning is often cited as a new paradigm in control theory, but is also often viewed as empirical and less intuitive for students than classical model-based methods. This is particularly the case for reinforcement learning, an approach that does n ...

PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE2023

Environmental determinants of access to shared sanitation in informal settlements: a cross-sectional study in Abidjan and Nairobi

Jérôme Chenal, Vitor Pessoa Colombo, Jürg Utzinger

Background Universal access to basic sanitation remains a global challenge, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Efforts are underway to improve access to sanitation in informal settlements, often through shared facilities. However, access to ...

2023

Functional data analysis with rough sample paths?

Victor Panaretos, Neda Mohammadi Jouzdani

Functional data are typically modeled as sample paths of smooth stochastic processes in order to mitigate the fact that they are often observed discretely and noisily, occasionally irregularly and sparsely. The smoothness assumption is imposed to allow for ...

TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD2024

Search for new heavy resonances decaying to WW, WZ, ZZ, WH, or ZH boson pairs in the all-jets final state in proton-proton collisions at √s=13 TeV

Rakesh Chawla, Andrea Rizzi, Matthias Finger, Federica Legger, Matteo Galli, Sun Hee Kim, Jian Zhao, João Miguel das Neves Duarte, Tagir Aushev, Hua Zhang, Alexis Kalogeropoulos, Yixing Chen, Tian Cheng, Ioannis Papadopoulos, Gabriele Grosso, Valérie Scheurer, Meng Xiao, Qian Wang, Michele Bianco, Varun Sharma, Joao Varela, Sourav Sen, Ashish Sharma, Seungkyu Ha, David Vannerom, Csaba Hajdu, Sanjeev Kumar, Sebastiana Gianì, Kun Shi, Abhisek Datta, Miao Hu, Siyuan Wang, Muhammad Waqas, Anton Petrov, Jian Wang, Yi Zhang, Lei Zhang, Muhammad Ansar Iqbal, Yong Yang, Xin Sun, Muhammad Ahmad, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Positive Definite Completions and Continuous Graphical Models

Kartik Waghmare

This thesis concerns the theory of positive-definite completions and its mutually beneficial connections to the statistics of function-valued or continuously-indexed random processes, better known as functional data analysis. In particular, it dwells upon ...

EPFL2023

Higher Order Asymptotics: Applications to Satellite Conjunction and Boundary Problems

Soumaya Elkantassi

Higher-order asymptotics provide accurate approximations for use in parametric statistical modelling. In this thesis, we investigate using higher-order approximations in two-specific settings, with a particular emphasis on the tangent exponential model. ...

EPFL2023

Wind, Hail, and Climate Extremes: Modelling and Attribution Studies for Environmental Data

Ophélia Mireille Anna Miralles

This thesis presents work at the junction of statistics and climate science. We first provide methodology for use by climate scientists when performing fast event attribution using extreme value theory, and then describe two interdisciplinary projects in c ...

EPFL2023