Global climate warming is leading to more frequent and severe extreme weather events, with alpine regions like the European Alps being particularly vulnerable. This thesis explores future changes in extreme weather dynamics in the southeastern Swiss Alps and their implications for hydropower production.
The first study estimated extreme return levels using traditional and modern univariate extreme value methods. Reservoir inflow at Luzzone and precipitation at six stations were analyzed with datasets spanning 10, 20, and 40 years. Results showed that shorter data series often provide comparable return levels, except for standard GEV, which was more data-sensitive, yielding lower return level estimates.
The second section of the research featured the development of a resampling tool for generating synthetic time series to simulate future climate impacts on hydropower using a resampling tool. Five scenarios for the Blenio (BLE) and Kraftwerke HinterRhein (KHR) networks, representing end-century changes under the "business-as-usual" (RCP8.5) scenario, were generated. Results indicated varied climate impact sensitivity across networks. For BLE, temperature changes notably affected hydropower production, while KHR experienced seasonal shifts in production due to changes in precipitation frequency.
The final study examined projected extreme precipitation dynamics using COSMO climate model data for 2090-2099 compared to 1996-2005 under the RCP8.5 scenario. A connected component labelling (CCL) method, developed to classify precipitation clusters, revealed increased intensity (summer, fall) and spatial extent (winter, spring) of future extreme precipitation. Variability between regions suggests that local-scale analyses are crucial, and further investigation into the drivers of spatial heterogeneity is needed.
Each study underscores the importance of local-scale analysis for understanding climate change impacts. While existing methods for extreme events were evaluated, new tools were also developed for scenario analysis and spatio-temporal assessments. These findings contribute to understanding the future dynamics of extremes in the Swiss Alps and their potential effects on hydropower and other socioeconomic activities.
