Anthony Christopher Davison

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The Open Support Platform for Environmental Research (OSPER) has been launched to take forward key data management components developed under the Swiss Experiment platform project to achieve improved usability and a wider scope. With this project, we aim to connect users to data and their context, an area identified during SwissEx as having the greatest potential impact on the research community. OSPER has a clear focus on providing the technology for data storage, management and exploitation with a special

We analyse air temperature data from 14 sites in Switzerland, each with two weather stations in close proximity, one under a forest canopy and the other in the open. We use the statistics of extremes to investigate how extremely high maximum and extremely ...

Spatial modeling of rare events has obvious applications in the environmental sciences and is crucial when assessing the effects of catastrophic events (such as heatwaves or widespread flooding) on food security and on the sustainability of societal infras ...

Severe thunderstorms can have devastating impacts. Concurrently high values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm relative helicity (SRH) are known to be conducive to severe weather, so high values of PROD - (CAPE)(1/2) x SRH have been ...

Peaks-over-threshold analysis using the generalised Pareto distribution is widely applied in modelling tails of univariate random variables, but much information may be lost when complex extreme events are studied using univariate results. In this paper, w ...

We use statistical models for mean and extreme values of total column ozone to analyze "fingerprints" of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry on long-term ozone changes at northern and southern mid-latitudes on grid cell basis. At each grid cell, the r-large ...

Birth-and-death processes are widely used to model the development of biological populations. Although they are relatively simple models, their parameters can be challenging to estimate, as the likelihood can become numerically unstable when data arise fro ...

This discussion focuses on areas of disagreement with the papers, particularly the target of inference and the case for using the robust 'sandwich' variance estimator in the presence of moderate mis-specification. We also suggest that existing procedures m ...

Statistical models for extreme values are generally derived from non-degenerate probabilistic limits that can be used to approximate the distribution of events that exceed a selected high threshold. If convergence to the limit distribution is slow, then th ...

The limiting distributions of statistics used to test hypotheses about parameters on the boundary of their domains may provide very poor approximations to the finite-sample behaviour of these statistics, even for very large samples. We review theoretical w ...

Species distribution models are increasingly used to address conservation questions, so their predictive capacity requires careful evaluation. Previous studies have shown how individual factors used in model construction can affect prediction. Although som ...

The modelling of prey-predator interactions is of major importance for the understanding of population dynamics. Classically, these interactions are modelled using ordinary differential equations, but this has the drawbacks of assuming continuous populatio ...

The spectral density function plays a key role in ﬁtting the tail of multivariate extremal data and so in estimating probabilities of rare events. This function satisﬁes moment constraints but unlike the univariate extreme value distributions has no simple ...

Although disaster risk management is becoming increasingly important in development cooperation, there is still a lack of robust evidence regarding its effectiveness. Few studies based on a counterfactual have been conducted in the fields of disaster manag ...

There is sustained and widespread interest in understanding the limit, if there is any, to the human life span. Apart from its intrinsic and biological interest, changes in survival in old age have implications for the sustainability of social security sys ...

We describe a prototype approach to flexible modelling for maxima observed at sites in a spatial domain, based on fitting of max-stable processes derived from underlying Gaussian random fields. The models we propose have generalised extreme-value marginal ...

Selection bias may arise when data have been chosen in a way that subsequent analysis does not account for. Such bias can arise in climate event attribution studies that are performed rapidly after a devastating "trigger event'', whose occurrence correspon ...

If an artificial intelligence aims to maximize risk-adjusted return, then under mild conditions it is disproportionately likely to pick an unethical strategy unless the objective function allows sufficiently for this risk. Even if the proportion eta of ava ...

Microarrays have become an important tool for studying the molecular basis of complex disease traits and fundamental biological processes. A common purpose of microarray experiments is the detection of genes that are differentially expressed under two cond ...

Associative learning is known to modify foraging behavior in numerous parasitic wasps. This is in agreement with optimal foraging theory, which predicts that the wasps will adapt their responses to specific cues in accordance with the rewards they receive while perceiving these cues. Indeed, the generalist parasitoid Cotesia marginiventris shows increased attraction to a specific plant odor after perceiving this odor during contact with hosts. This positive associative learning is common among many parasito

Anthony Christopher Davison

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Open Support Platform for Environmental Research (OSPER)-tools for the discovery and exploitation of environmental data

Extreme temperature analysis under forest cover compared to an open field

Geostatistics of Dependent and Asymptotically Independent Extremes

Trends in the Extremes of Environments Associated with Severe US Thunderstorms

Functional peaks-over-threshold analysis

On the relationship between total ozone and atmospheric dynamics and chemistry at mid-latitudes - Part 1: Statistical models and spatial fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry

Parameter estimation for discretely observed linear birth-and-death processes

Comment: Models Are Approximations!

Sub‐asymptotic motivation for new conditional multivariate extreme models

Improved inference for a boundary parameter

Measuring the relative effect of factors affecting species distribution model predictions

Stochastic modelling of prey depletion processes

A mixture model for multivariate extremes

The challenges of impact evaluation: Attempting to measure the effectiveness of community-based disaster risk management

Is There a Cap on Longevity? A Statistical Review

Geostatistics of extremes

Timing and spatial selection bias in rapid extreme event attribution

An unethical optimization principle

A Laplace mixture model for the identification of differential expression in microarrays

Effects of Rewarding and Unrewarding Experiences on the Response to Host-induced Plant Odors of the Generalist Parasitoid Cotesia marginiventris (Hymenoptera: Braconidae)