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Anthony Christopher Davison

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Related publications (92)

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Geostatistics of Dependent and Asymptotically Independent Extremes

Anthony Christopher Davison, Raphaël Huser, Emeric Rolland Georges Thibaud

Spatial modeling of rare events has obvious applications in the environmental sciences and is crucial when assessing the effects of catastrophic events (such as heatwaves or widespread flooding) on food security and on the sustainability of societal infras ...

Springer Heidelberg2013

Trends in the Extremes of Environments Associated with Severe US Thunderstorms

Anthony Christopher Davison, Erwan Fabrice Koch, Jonathan Koh Boon Han

Severe thunderstorms can have devastating impacts. Concurrently high values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm relative helicity (SRH) are known to be conducive to severe weather, so high values of PROD - (CAPE)(1/2) x SRH have been ...

AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC2021

Functional peaks-over-threshold analysis

Anthony Christopher Davison, Raphaël Gérard Théodore Michel Marie de Deloÿe et Fourcade de Fondeville

Peaks-over-threshold analysis using the generalised Pareto distribution is widely applied in modelling tails of univariate random variables, but much information may be lost when complex extreme events are studied using univariate results. In this paper, w ...

WILEY2022

On the relationship between total ozone and atmospheric dynamics and chemistry at mid-latitudes - Part 1: Statistical models and spatial fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry

Anthony Christopher Davison, Linda Frossard

We use statistical models for mean and extreme values of total column ozone to analyze "fingerprints" of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry on long-term ozone changes at northern and southern mid-latitudes on grid cell basis. At each grid cell, the r-large ...

Copernicus Publications2013

Parameter estimation for discretely observed linear birth-and-death processes

Anthony Christopher Davison, Sophie Myriam Hautphenne, Andrea Kraus

Birth-and-death processes are widely used to model the development of biological populations. Although they are relatively simple models, their parameters can be challenging to estimate, as the likelihood can become numerically unstable when data arise fro ...

WILEY2021

Comment: Models Are Approximations!

Anthony Christopher Davison, Erwan Fabrice Koch, Jonathan Koh Boon Han

This discussion focuses on areas of disagreement with the papers, particularly the target of inference and the case for using the robust 'sandwich' variance estimator in the presence of moderate mis-specification. We also suggest that existing procedures m ...

INST MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS2019

Optimal regionalization of extreme value distributions for flood estimation

Anthony Christopher Davison, Sebastian Engelke

Regionalization methods have long been used to estimate high return levels of river discharges at ungauged locations on a river network. In these methods, discharge measurements from a homogeneous group of similar, gauged, stations are used to estimate hig ...

2018

Sub‐asymptotic motivation for new conditional multivariate extreme models

Anthony Christopher Davison, Thomas Lugrin

Statistical models for extreme values are generally derived from non-degenerate probabilistic limits that can be used to approximate the distribution of events that exceed a selected high threshold. If convergence to the limit distribution is slow, then th ...

2021

Improved inference for a boundary parameter

Anthony Christopher Davison, Soumaya Elkantassi

The limiting distributions of statistics used to test hypotheses about parameters on the boundary of their domains may provide very poor approximations to the finite-sample behaviour of these statistics, even for very large samples. We review theoretical w ...

WILEY2023

Measuring the relative effect of factors affecting species distribution model predictions

Anthony Christopher Davison, Emeric Rolland Georges Thibaud

Species distribution models are increasingly used to address conservation questions, so their predictive capacity requires careful evaluation. Previous studies have shown how individual factors used in model construction can affect prediction. Although som ...

Wiley-Blackwell2014

Stochastic modelling of prey depletion processes

Anthony Christopher Davison

The modelling of prey-predator interactions is of major importance for the understanding of population dynamics. Classically, these interactions are modelled using ordinary differential equations, but this has the drawbacks of assuming continuous populatio ...

2009

A mixture model for multivariate extremes

Anthony Christopher Davison, Marc-Olivier Boldi

The spectral density function plays a key role in ﬁtting the tail of multivariate extremal data and so in estimating probabilities of rare events. This function satisﬁes moment constraints but unlike the univariate extreme value distributions has no simple ...

2007

The challenges of impact evaluation: Attempting to measure the effectiveness of community-based disaster risk management

Alfredo Rafael Kägi Trejo, Anthony Christopher Davison, Silvia Hostettler, Nicola Mary Banwell

Although disaster risk management is becoming increasingly important in development cooperation, there is still a lack of robust evidence regarding its effectiveness. Few studies based on a counterfactual have been conducted in the fields of disaster manag ...

2020

Is There a Cap on Longevity? A Statistical Review

Anthony Christopher Davison, Léo Raymond-Belzile

There is sustained and widespread interest in understanding the limit, if there is any, to the human life span. Apart from its intrinsic and biological interest, changes in survival in old age have implications for the sustainability of social security sys ...

ANNUAL REVIEWS2022

Geostatistics of extremes

Anthony Christopher Davison, Mehdi Gholam

We describe a prototype approach to flexible modelling for maxima observed at sites in a spatial domain, based on fitting of max-stable processes derived from underlying Gaussian random fields. The models we propose have generalised extreme-value marginal ...

2012

Timing and spatial selection bias in rapid extreme event attribution

Anthony Christopher Davison, Ophélia Mireille Anna Miralles

Selection bias may arise when data have been chosen in a way that subsequent analysis does not account for. Such bias can arise in climate event attribution studies that are performed rapidly after a devastating "trigger event'', whose occurrence correspon ...

ELSEVIER2023

An unethical optimization principle

Anthony Christopher Davison

If an artificial intelligence aims to maximize risk-adjusted return, then under mild conditions it is disproportionately likely to pick an unethical strategy unless the objective function allows sufficiently for this risk. Even if the proportion eta of ava ...

ROYAL SOC2020

Extreme events in total ozone over the Northern mid-latitudes: an analysis based on long-term data sets from five European ground-based stations

Anthony Christopher Davison

We apply methods from extreme value theory to identify extreme events in high (termed EHOs) and low (termed ELOs) total ozone and to describe the distribution tails (i.e. very high and very low values) of five long-term European ground-based total ozone ti ...

2011

A Laplace mixture model for the identification of differential expression in microarrays

Anthony Christopher Davison, Darlene Goldstein

Microarrays have become an important tool for studying the molecular basis of complex disease traits and fundamental biological processes. A common purpose of microarray experiments is the detection of genes that are differentially expressed under two cond ...

2006

Accurate parametric inference for small samples

Anthony Christopher Davison

We outline how modern likelihood theory, which provides essentially exact inferences in a variety of parametric statistical problems, may routinely be applied in practice. Although the likelihood procedures are based on analytical asymptotic approximations ...

2008