Lecture

MLE Applications: Binary Choice Models

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In course

FIN-403: Econometrics

The course covers basic econometric models and methods that are routinely applied to obtain inference results in economic and financial applications. ...

Description

This lecture explores the application of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) in binary choice models. MLE estimators use assumptions about the distribution of random variables to maximize the loglikelihood and select parameters most likely to have generated the data. The lecture covers the quasi-ML as a GMM estimator, asymptotic distribution calculations, probit and logit models, latent variable representation, and the estimation of covariance matrices. It delves into the challenges of modeling probabilities directly, interaction terms, goodness-of-fit measures, marginal effects, specification tests (Wald, likelihood ratio, LM), and concludes with insights on ordered outcomes in multiresponse models.

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Instructor

Andreas Fuster

Andreas Fuster is an Associate Professor of Finance at Swiss Finance Institute @ EPFL and a Research Fellow at the CEPR. Previously, he worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Swiss National Bank. Andreas's main research interests are in empirical finance, macroeconomics, and behavioral economics. His recent work has focused in particular on the effects of technological advances on household credit markets. Andreas’s research has been published in academic journals such as the Quarterly Journal of Economics, the Review of Economic Studies, the Journal of Finance, and the Review of Financial Studies. Andreas obtained his Ph.D. from Harvard University and also holds an M.Phil. from Oxford University and a B.A. from the University of Lausanne (Switzerland), all in economics.

Official source

Ontological neighbourhood

Statistics

Data analysis: Regression analysis

Statistical inference: Mathematical statistics

Related concepts (32)

Logistic regression

In statistics, the logistic model (or logit model) is a statistical model that models the probability of an event taking place by having the log-odds for the event be a linear combination of one or more independent variables. In regression analysis, logistic regression (or logit regression) is estimating the parameters of a logistic model (the coefficients in the linear combination).

Discrete choice

In economics, discrete choice models, or qualitative choice models, describe, explain, and predict choices between two or more discrete alternatives, such as entering or not entering the labor market, or choosing between modes of transport. Such choices contrast with standard consumption models in which the quantity of each good consumed is assumed to be a continuous variable. In the continuous case, calculus methods (e.g. first-order conditions) can be used to determine the optimum amount chosen, and demand can be modeled empirically using regression analysis.

Probit model

In statistics, a probit model is a type of regression where the dependent variable can take only two values, for example married or not married. The word is a portmanteau, coming from probability + unit. The purpose of the model is to estimate the probability that an observation with particular characteristics will fall into a specific one of the categories; moreover, classifying observations based on their predicted probabilities is a type of binary classification model. A probit model is a popular specification for a binary response model.

Ordered probit

In statistics, ordered probit is a generalization of the widely used probit analysis to the case of more than two outcomes of an ordinal dependent variable (a dependent variable for which the potential values have a natural ordering, as in poor, fair, good, excellent). Similarly, the widely used logit method also has a counterpart ordered logit. Ordered probit, like ordered logit, is a particular method of ordinal regression. For example, in clinical research, the effect a drug may have on a patient may be modeled with ordered probit regression.

Ordered logit

In statistics, the ordered logit model (also ordered logistic regression or proportional odds model) is an ordinal regression model—that is, a regression model for ordinal dependent variables—first considered by Peter McCullagh. For example, if one question on a survey is to be answered by a choice among "poor", "fair", "good", "very good" and "excellent", and the purpose of the analysis is to see how well that response can be predicted by the responses to other questions, some of which may be quantitative, then ordered logistic regression may be used.

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